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Nepean By-election 2026

83.6% turnout, final figures

Liberal retain
Anthony Marsh elected

6.9% swing to LIB

Preference count

Liberal Party

Anthony Marsh

Vote: 63.2%

25,642

Independent

Tracee Hutchison

Vote: 36.8%

14,903

  • In the full distribution of preferences, independent Tracee Hutchison overtook One Nation candidate Darren Hercus to finish in second place in this seat.
  • Previously held by LIB with margin of 6.4%.
  • Anthony Marsh succeeds Sam Groth as Liberal MP.

First preference

LiberalLiberal Party

Anthony Marsh

Vote:38.7%
15,682
Swing: -9.4%

One NationOne Nation

Darren Hercus

Vote:24.5%
9,941
Swing: +24.5%

IndependentIndependent

Tracee Hutchison

Vote:21.1%
8,533
Swing: +21.1%

GreensThe Greens

Sianan Healy

Vote:9.4%
3,805
Swing: +0.6%

Legalise CannabisLegalise Cannabis

Renee Thompson

Vote:2.9%
1,192
Swing: +2.9%

Sustainable AustraliaSustainable Australia Party

Reade Smith

Vote:1.8%
721
Swing: +1.8%

LibertarianLibertarian

Peter Angelico

Vote:1.2%
505
Swing: +1.2%

Reform AUReform AU

Milton Wilde

Vote:0.4%
166
Swing: +0.4%

LaborLabor Party

-

Vote:0.0%
0
Swing: -32.6%

OthersOthers

-

Vote:0.0%
0
Swing: -10.5%
Informal Votes
4.8%
2,041
Total Votes
42,586

Polling place results

Mornington Peninsula

Safe Liberal 6.4% ↓ 8 candidates nominated
Held by

Vacant since the resignation of Sam Groth (Liberal) from parliament. Groth was first elected in the 2022 state election.

Election day

The by-election will be held on Saturday May 2

Electorate

Encompasses the western tip of the Mornington Peninsula from Portsea, across to Flinders, and up to Safety Beach.

Contest

Labor is not running a candidate, leaving an independent and One Nation the main challengers to the Liberals.

History

Shock gain for Labor in its 2018 landslide, then recovered by retiring member and former deputy Liberal leader Sam Groth in 2022.

Past Winning Parties

Year Winning Party
2002 LIB
2006 LIB
2010 LIB
2014 LIB
2018 ALP
2022 LIB

(Victories by the party that formed government are underlined)

Profile

The electorate of Nepean covers the western tip of the Mornington Peninsula, extending over 387 square kilometres running south from Foxeys Road at Mount Martha in the north and lying west of Merricks Beach. It includes the bayside communities of Safety Beach, Dromana, McCrae, Rosebud, Tootgarook, Rye, Blairgowrie, Sorrento and Portsea, as well as St Andrews Beach, Cape Schank and Flinders. The electorate includes Arthurs Seat State Park and Point Nepean National Park.

Background

Nepean was first contested at the 2002 election, a new name for an electorate that had been known as Dromana since 1967. The area has traditionally been represented by the Liberal Party, with Labor only holding the district on the election of the Cain government in 1982, and then Labor's upset victory in 2018.

Dromana was held for the Liberal Party 1985-92 by Dr Ronald Wells, who was defeated for pre-election in 1992. Wells instead won and represented Eumemmerring Province in the Legislative Council from 1992 until retiring in 1999.

Wells was succeeded in Dromana by Tony Hyams, but he retired after a single term, and Dromana/Nepean was represented by Martin Dixon from 1996 until his retirement at the 2018 election. Dixon narrowly survived the 2002 Bracks landslide to become the first member for the renamed Nepean. He subsequently increased his majority, but on retirement the buffer was not enough to withstand the swing to Labor in 2018. The election of Labor's Chris Brayne was built on a swing of 15 per cent over two elections.

Former professional tennis player Sam Groth returned the seat to the Liberal fold at the 2022 election, with a 7.1 per cent swing.

Retiring MP

Groth was born and raised in regional NSW before moving to Melbourne as a 16 year-old to pursue his dream of being a professional tennis player. He represented Australia at both the Olympic Games and in the Davis Cup, as well as being awarded Australian Tennis' highest honour, the Newcombe Medal in 2015. After retiring from tennis after the Australian Open in 2018, Groth embarked on a media career with the Nine network and as a columnist for News Corporation.

He entered state parliament in 2022, immediately entering the shadow ministry with the youth, tourism, sport and events portfolios. He quit shadow cabinet in December 2024, shortly before John Pesutto was replaced as leader by Brad Battin, and subsequently became the deputy leader of the party.

In 2025 he was the subject of articles in the Herald Sun about the beginning of his relationship with his wife, for which Groth sued the newspaper for defamation. It's understood the parties settled out of court.

Groth was re-elected as deputy leader when Jess Wilson became party leader in November 2025, but quit the position in January and announced he would not contest November's general election. He said he made his decision after realising that public pressure on his family had come from within his own party. He pulled his retirement forward in February, saying he intended to pursue other opportunities.

2026 candidates · ballot paper order

Candidate Party
HERCUS, Darren Pauline Hanson's One Nation
SMITH, Reade Affordable Housing Now – Sustainable Australia Party
HEALY, Sianan The Greens
MARSH, Anthony Liberal
WILDE, Milton End Mass Immigration – Reform AU
ANGELICO, Peter Libertarian
HUTCHISON, Tracee Independent
THOMPSON, Renee Legalise Cannabis
Anthony Marsh (Liberal)
Anthony Marsh Liberal Party
Website →

Marsh is the Mayor of Mornington Peninsula Shire and was elected to the council as an independent at the 2020 local government election. Marsh has previously said he would not run for parliament but says he is doing so due to the performance of the state Labor government. Before entering local government he was a Commissioned Officer in the Air Force. He also owns a small business that develops a drone safety app.

Darren Hercus (One Nation)
Darren Hercus One Nation
Website →

Hercus is a civil engineer and owns a joist and truss manufacturing business in Dromana. He says he is a former Liberal voter and cites pressures on his business such as increased land tax, workers compensation and rates bills as his motivation to join One Nation.

Tracee Hutchison (Independent)
Tracee Hutchison Independent
Website →

Hutchison has worked in the media since the early 1980s as a broadcaster, journalist, and producer including in roles at triple J, the ABC, Channel 7, Channel 9, and a community radio station on the Mornington Peninsula. She grew up in Rosebud and McCrae and continues to work in the area with Mornington Community Support Centre and Southern Peninsula Community Support. Hutchison is the chair of Green Music Australia, a peak national environmental music body. Her campaign is backed by Independents for Mornington Peninsula, who supported Ben Smith’s campaign for the overlapping federal seat of Flinders at the 2025 federal election.

Peter Angelico (Libertarian)
Peter Angelico Libertarian
Website →

Angelico is the founder and managing director of a Dandenong manufacturing firm and has more than 30 years of industry experience. He is also president of the South East Melbourne Manufacturers Alliance and was named Corporate Citizen of the Year by the City of Greater Dandenong. Angelico was a long term Liberal Party member who left the party last year.

Sianan Healy (Greens)
Sianan Healy The Greens
Website →

Healy works in healthcare advocacy and manages the Evidence and Capacity Building team at Women's Health Victoria. Prior to that she was a qualitative researcher investigating experiences of infertility and fertility treatment. She holds a PhD in history from the University of Melbourne.

Reade Smith (Sustainable Australia)
Reade Smith Sustainable Australia Party
Website →

Smith currently works as a ranger in local government. He is a former police officer, serving as a Senior Constable with Victoria Police. He was a councillor on the Mornington Peninsula Shire from 2000 to 2012, including one year in which he served as mayor.

Renee Thompson (Legalise Cannabis)
Renee Thompson Legalise Cannabis
Website →

Thompson is a marriage celebrant, event producer, and community advocate who until recently worked in local government as a community development officer. She says she is an open and proud cannabis user and that her vision is to help create communities that are safer, more welcoming, open-minded, and accessible.

Milton Wilde (Reform AU)
Milton Wilde Reform AU

Wilde has previously worked as a police officer and a systems analyst in the architecture, construction, and engineering industries. He ran as the Trumpet of Patriots candidate for Deakin at the 2025 federal election.

2022 result

Candidate Votes
Sam Groth (LIB) 19,614
48.1% +4.0
Chris Brayne (ALP) 13,308
32.6% -5.3
Esther Gleixner (GRN) 3,576
8.8% -2.2
Hank Leine (FPV) 980
2.4% +2.4
Pamela Engelander (AJP) 720
1.8% +1.8
Janny Dijkman (FFV) 638
1.6% +1.6
Jay Miller (CPP) 526
1.3% +1.3
Elizabeth Woolcock (IND) 495
1.2% +1.2
Charelle Ainslie (IND) 449
1.1% +1.1
Cynthia Skruzny (DLP) 369
0.9% +0.9
Steve Anger (IND) 91
0.2% +0.2
.... (IND) 0
0% -7.0
Two-candidate preferred
56.4%
43.6%
Sam Groth (LIB) Chris Brayne (ALP)

2022 polling place results

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