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Farrer By-election 2026

87.5% turnout, final figures

One Nation gain
From Liberal
David Farley elected

1.4% swing from IND

Preference count

One Nation

David Farley

Vote: 57.6%

58,294

Independent

Michelle Milthorpe

Vote: 42.4%

42,992

  • Previously held by LIB with margin of 6.2%.
  • David Farley becomes first One Nation candidate ever elected to the federal House of Representatives.

First preference

One NationOne Nation

David Farley

Vote:39.5%
40,042
Swing: +32.9%

IndependentIndependent

Michelle Milthorpe

Vote:28.1%
28,442
Swing: +8.1%

LiberalLiberal Party

Raissa Butkowski

Vote:12.4%
12,572
Swing: -31.0%

The NationalsThe Nationals

Brad Robertson

Vote:9.8%
9,901
Swing: +9.8%

Legalise CannabisLegalise Cannabis

Aimee Pearson

Vote:2.3%
2,357
Swing: +2.3%

The GreensThe Greens

Richard Hendrie

Vote:2.3%
2,346
Swing: -2.6%

Shooters Fishers and FarmersShooters, Fishers and Farmers

Peter Sinclair

Vote:2.0%
1,981
Swing: -1.5%

Family FirstFamily First

Rebecca Scriven

Vote:1.2%
1,234
Swing: -0.9%

IndependentIndependent

Gary Pappin

Vote:0.8%
790
Swing: +0.8%

People FirstGerard Rennick People First

Jamie Bonnefin

Vote:0.7%
705
Swing: -1.3%

Sustainable Australia PartyAffordable Housing Now - Sustainable Australia Party

Lucas Ellis

Vote:0.6%
595
Swing: +0.6%

IndependentIndependent

Roger Woodward

Vote:0.3%
321
Swing: +0.3%

LaborLabor Party

-

Vote:0.0%
0
Swing: -15.1%

OthersOthers

-

Vote:0.0%
0
Swing: -2.4%
Informal Votes
7.0%
7,599
Total Votes
108,885

Polling place results

Southern and Western NSW

Safe Liberal 6.2% ↓ 12 candidates nominated
Held by

Vacant since the resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, after she lost the leadership of her party in February. Ley had held Farrer since 2001.

Election day

The by-election will be held on Saturday May 9

Electorate

Expansive rural electorate covering the southwest corner of NSW, including Albury, Griffith, and Deniliquin

Contest

The Liberals are facing challenges from One Nation and Michelle Milthorpe, an independent who cut the Liberal margin by 10 points in 2025.

History

Held by the Liberal and National parties since its inception in 1949, including by former Nationals leader Tim Fischer

Past Winning Parties

Year Winning Party
1972 LIB
1974 LIB
1975 LIB
1977 LIB
1980 LIB
1983 LIB
1984 NAT
1987 NAT
1990 NAT
1993 NAT
1996 NAT
1998 NAT
2001 LIB
2004 LIB
2007 LIB
2010 LIB
2013 LIB
2016 LIB
2019 LIB
2022 LIB
2025 LIB

(Victories by the party that formed government are underlined)

Profile

Farrer covers 126,563 square kilometres and stretches along the Murray River from Albury to the South Australian border, including Corowa, Deniliquin and Balranald. The electorate also takes in the western parts of the Riverina district, including Griffith, Leeton, Narrandera and Hay. The electorate is the second largest in New South Wales covering 15.8 per cent of the state.

Background

Sussan Ley's retirement from federal parliament sparks a fiercely fought by-election in western New South Wales. Both the Liberals and Nationals are contesting along with One Nation and independent candidates including Michelle Milthorpe, who came second in Farrer in 2025.

It will be watched closely as the first electoral test of new Liberal leader Angus Taylor and as a gauge on One Nation support in regional New South Wales.

Farrer was one of the new electorates created on the expansion of the House of Representatives in 1949. It is named after William James Farrer, noted wheat breeder and experimentalist. Farrer has been a safe conservative seat since its creation and has had only four members in the seven decades since its first contest. It was held by former Liberal ministers David Fairbairn 1949-75 and Wal Fife 1975-84, and former National Party Leader and Deputy Prime Minister Tim Fischer 1984-2001.

Fife was a former state MP for Wagga Wagga, and when that city was transferred out of Farrer into Hume at the 1984 election, Fife chose to follow his home base. That opened an opportunity for a state National MP Tim Fischer to win Farrar at the 1984 election.

Fischer was to surprise most observers by winning the National Party Leadership after the National Party's reverses at the 1990 election. With a bumbling speaking style that masked a smart political brain, Fischer had to defend the new gun laws introduced in the first term of the Howard government, and withstand the insurgency of Pauline Hanson's One Nation.

Fischer retired from Parliament at the 2001 election, when the National Party's older male candidate lost Farrer to Sussan Ley, the Liberal Party's younger female candidate. Ley won the seat with a majority of just 0.1% over the National Party, but a much safer 16.4% versus Labor. Without a National Party challenger at subsequent elections, Ley has had little difficulty retaining this seat.

2026 candidates · ballot paper order

Candidate Party
BUTKOWSKI, Raissa Liberal Party
MILTHORPE, Michelle Independent
BONNEFIN, Jamie Gerard Rennick People First
ROBERTSON, Brad The Nationals
PEARSON, Aimee Lee Legalise Cannabis Party
HENDRIE, Richard August The Greens
WOODWARD, Roger Independent
FARLEY, David Pauline Hanson's One Nation
SCRIVEN, Rebecca Family First
ELLIS, Lucas James Sustainable Australia Party
PAPPIN, Gary Jean Independent
SINCLAIR, Peter Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Raissa Butkowski (Liberal)
Raissa Butkowski Liberal Party
Website →

Butkowski was elected as an independent Albury City councillor in October 2024. She also serves as a board member of the Murray-Darling Association and works as a Senior Lawyer for Hume Riverina Community Legal Service. Prior to her law career she worked as a lab technician and a tennis coach.

Michelle Milthorpe (Independent)
Michelle Milthorpe Independent
Website →

Milthorpe is an educator and child sexual assault advocate based in Jindera. She holds an education degree from the Australian Catholic University. She contested this seat in the 2025 federal election, polling 20 per cent of the primary vote and finishing second after preferences with 43.8 per cent of the vote.

David Farley (One Nation)
David Farley One Nation

Farley is an agribusiness and irrigation professional from Narrandera. The 69-year-old has worked in the United States, Africa and the former Soviet Union and is interested in water reform in the Murray-Darling basin. He is a former chief executive of the Australian Agricultural Company.

Jamie Bonnefin (People First)
Jamie Bonnefin Gerard Rennick People First
Website →

Bonnefin is the director of an energy compliance and sustainability assessment business in the building industry. He was born in Newcastle, spent his early years in Wilcannia, and currently lives on the Central Coast with his wife and two children. He says he has been inspired by leaders like Henry Parkes and Gerard Rennick to step into public life.

Lucas Ellis (Sustainable Australia Party)
Lucas Ellis Affordable Housing Now - Sustainable Australia Party
Website →

Ellis works as an urban planner and is a volunteer manager at local soccer clubs. He spent his formative years in Albury, later travelling and working overseas. He has also been endorsed as the Sustainable Australia Party candidate for Albury at the 2027 NSW state election. 

Richard Hendrie (The Greens)
Richard Hendrie The Greens

Hendrie is a mental health and disability advocate and was the 2025 Albury Citizen of the Year. He holds senior roles representing lived experience perspectives to state government and national boards, and has qualifications in social work, arts, and psychology. He is a resident of Lavington and was the Greens candidate for Farrer at the 2025 federal election.

Gary Pappin (Independent)
Gary Pappin Independent
Website →

Pappin has served as the councillor for Greater Wakool Ward on Murray River Council since 2024. Before his election to council, he worked in the agriculture and mining, as well as in the public service working on water infrastructure. He cites a history of advocacy both locally and globally, particularly in relation to the Murray Darling Basin.

Aimee Pearson (Legalise Cannabis)
Aimee Pearson Legalise Cannabis

Pearson has a professional background in community pharmacy and oncology. Her key campaign issues include strengthening Albury Hospital services and changing how driving laws apply to medicinal cannabis users.

Brad Robertson (The Nationals)
Brad Robertson The Nationals

Robertson had a 29 year career in the Australian Army, including senior roles in Canberra and an overseas posting to the Australian embassy to Saudi Arabia in Riyadh. He is currently chair of the Albury Wodonga Regional Cancer Centre Trust Fund and chair of Manufacturing BRIDGE, advocating for stronger regional manufacturing, local jobs and economic growth across the region. Robertson is chairperson of the NSW Nationals.

Rebecca Scriven (Family First)
Rebecca Scriven Family First
Website →

Scriven is originally from South Australia but now lives just north of Albury and works at an independent Christian school.

Peter Sinclair (Shooters Fishers and Farmers)
Peter Sinclair Shooters, Fishers and Farmers

Sinclair is a Holbrook local who worked for the Greater Hume Shire for 17 years. He is also a former army reservist and member of the Hume Pistol Club. He has been a Shooters, Fishers and Farmers member since the party's inception in 1992 and prevously ran for Farrer in 2025. He also stood for the state seat of Albury in 2023.

Roger Woodward (Independent)
Roger Woodward Independent

Woodward is a chartered accountant and was a volunteer firefighter with the RFS. He has run as an independent candidate in the division of Berowra in Sydney's outer north at every federal election since 2016 as well as the 2024 Cook by-election. 

2025 result

Candidate Votes
Sussan Ley (LIB) 44,743
43.4% -8.9
Michelle Milthorpe (IND) 20,567
20% +20.0
Glen Hyde (ALP) 15,551
15.1% -3.9
Emma Hicks (ONP) 6,803
6.6% +0.3
Richard Hendrie (GRN) 5,085
4.9% -4.2
Peter Sinclair (SFF) 3,577
3.5% -1.8
Tanya Hargraves (TOP) 2,441
2.4% +2.4
Rebecca Scriven (FFP) 2,218
2.1% +2.1
David O'Reilly (PF) 2,078
2% +2.0
.... (OTH) 0
0% -8.0
Two-candidate preferred
56.2%
43.8%
Sussan Ley (LIB) Michelle Milthorpe (IND)

2025 polling place results

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