People aren't moving to Tasmania anymore and that has implications for the economy
In short:
Tasmania's population growth has slowed sharply since its pandemic‑era boom, with the state now recording the lowest growth rate in the country.
Experts warn natural population decline and an aging population could pose long-term economic and workforce challenges.
What's next?
The Tasmanian government says it is on track to meet a target of 650,000 people by 2050, while commentators say improvements to health and education are key to attracting people to the state.
Between 2016 and 2021, Tasmania was the place to be, or move to.
Almost 50,000 people were added to the state's population in that time.
That may not sound like much compared with bigger states, but during that period, Tasmania outpaced the nation in population growth.
Since then, it has been more subdued.
In September 2025, Tasmania's annual growth rate was only 0.3 per cent, the lowest in the country.
"Tasmania's population growth rate is actually the lowest it's been this century,"demographer Lisa Denny said.
The Centre for Population is predicting that by 2028-29, Tasmania will be the first state in Australia to enter natural decline, in which deaths outnumber births.
Tasmania's Treasury warns if population growth remains low or even declines, it could be a risk to the economy. (Pixabay: Marisa Sias)
More young adults are expected to continue to leave Tasmania, and overseas migration will be the main driver of modest population growth in the future, according to the centre.
"When a large majority of our young people in Tasmania are actually born overseas and likely to be on temporary visas in Tasmania, it's unlikely that they are going to be in family formation decision-making processes," Dr Denny said.
Tasmanian Treasury papers warn that if population growth remains low or even declines, it could be a risk to the economy and "exacerbate existing challenges faced by the state, including skill shortages and the ageing population."
Like Melbourne in the 90s
For every Tasmanian arrival and departure, there is an individual reason behind the move.
Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner came to Tasmania in 2018 with plans to "buckle down".
They arrived from Moreton Island in Queensland with $500, a car and no qualifications.
"We just had to work our way up from the bottom,"Mr Wagner said.
Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner. (ABC News: Mackenzie Heard)
Determined to get into the housing market, Mr Wagner took on an adult apprenticeship in welding and flipped mountain bikes on the side.
"We bought the cheapest house we could possibly afford and basically just made it work," he said.
The couple now have two kids and said that while accessing childcare in Burnie was a problem, overall their move to Tasmania had been a success.
"On the mainland, you would not have been able to do this,"Ms Willemsen said.
The couple describe the small city of Burnie as like growing up in Melbourne in the 90s.
"There's milk bars on corners, there's active footy clubs, everyone says hello," Mr Wagner said.
Milly Willemsen and Nick Wagner are building a life in Burnie, on Tasmania's north-west coast. (ABC News: Mackenzie Heard)
Sunshine and job opportunities: why people leave
On the flip side, like many young Tasmanians, 22-year-old Ellie Warmbrunn has left the state.
Ellie Warmbrunn is enjoying the sun in Queensland. (ABC News: Glenn Mullane)
She is working and studying on Queensland's Gold Coast.
"I'm doing journalism and creative writing, and I also work up here as a model," she said.
Ms Warmbrunn said she was enjoying the Queensland lifestyle and would be there "for the foreseeable future".
"You can have a great morning of study, and then you can just head down to the beach, have a swim, and you're always out in the sunshine, really."
Ms Warmbrunn said while she missed her family in Tasmania, she had no plans to return at this stage.
"I think I will be up here for the foreseeable future as I develop my career; there's just a lot more scope."
The Tasmanian government says it is on track to meet a target of 650,000 people by 2050. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
Busy roads, housing shortages mean it doesn't feel like a population slump
Even though Tasmania's population growth has plateaued since 2021, the state has seen increased peak-hour traffic congestion and growth in outer suburbs.
Lisa Denny says Tasmania's aging population presents a challenge for governments. (ABC News: Ebony ten Broeke)
In the past five years, the municipality of Clarence, in the south, has increased by 3,350 people, and Brighton, north of Hobart, by 2,030.
Meander Valley, in the state's north, has increased by 1,140 people.
Because Tasmania's population growth is driven more by interstate and overseas migration than by births, demand for housing has increased.
"And when you look at what's happening in the short-stay accommodation sector and losing whole houses to non-permanent occupancy, then that is also contributing to increased pressure on our housing," Dr Denny said.
While some parts of the state are growing, other local government areas recorded population decline.
Treasury papers state that in the past five years, Hobart declined by 350 people because of lower numbers of international students and Glenorchy, north of Hobart, lost 200 people.
Smaller, older population a risk to the economy
Tasmania's Treasury is predicting modest population growth over the next few years.
| Financial Year | Change in the year (persons) |
|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3,123 (0.4 per cent) |
| 2026-27 | 3,150 (0.5 per cent) |
| 2027-28 | 3,250 (0.6 per cent) |
Slower population growth means lower payroll tax, lower stamp duty and lower consumer spending, which means less GST.
"[GST] is a bigger source of revenue for the Tasmanian government than it is proportionally for any other part of the country, except the Northern Territory," independent economist Saul Eslake said.
Population growth alone is not the only way to grow the economy and productivity improvements can help, something Mr Eslake said Tasmania "has been pretty bad at".
It is predicted that by 2050, 28 per cent of Tasmania's population will be aged over 65. (ABC News: Margaret Burin )
Tasmanian Treasurer Eric Abetz said the economy had strengthened despite recent low population growth.
"We have been able to show a 1.1 per cent growth in our gross state product per capita," he said.
On the one hand, a slower-growing population could limit the demand for government services.
But on the other hand, Tasmania's aging population will add to healthcare spending and skills shortages.
By 2050, it is predicted that the median age of a Tasmanian will be about 48 years, and 28 per cent of the population will be aged over 65.
Despite population stagnation, finding a place to live can be challenging in Tasmania. (ABC News: Luke Bowden)
Mr Abetz said the state was already facing struggles associated with an older population.
"Three wards of patients are stranded [in Tasmanian hospitals] because they can't get into an aged care facility," he said.
He said the problem was costing the state $100 million a year, and he urged the federal government to do more to address it.
What's the plan for attracting more people to Tasmania?
Mr Abetz said that despite slower population growth, the state was on track to reach its target of 650,000 people by 2050.
Treasury papers suggest lower population growth could improve housing affordability, which in turn could lift interstate migration.
The papers also state that the construction of the Macquarie Point stadium in Hobart could be a drawcard for young workers from across Australia.
Some are questioning whether there will be enough workers to build the Hobart stadium in time for its planned opening. (Supplied: Cox Architecture)
But Dr Denny said Tasmania would be competing for workers with other big construction projects, "for example, the Brisbane Olympic Games infrastructure projects".
Mr Eslake believes basic government services need to be improved to change Tasmania's population trajectory
"If we want to arrest the outflow of people from Tasmania and especially younger people … then we need to fix up our education and health systems,"he said.
Dr Denny would like to reframe how decision-makers think about an aging population.
"The longer we're able to keep people active and productive in the workforce, that's an opportunity we need to capture," she said.
"It also provides opportunities for young people to enter the workforce in Tasmania."