Over next decade, Tasmania's population of residents aged over 85 years will double. How will state cope?
The Council on the Ageing says ageism needs to be confronted before the shift in demographics.
The number of Tasmanians over the age of 85 will nearly double over the next decade, according to new data from the national Centre for Population.
The figures show that, in total, the number of over-85-year-olds will grow from just over 13,000, to nearly 25,000 in total.
Those figures also show Tasmania's median age is 41.7, compared with 38.6 nationally.
Over the next 10 years, the gap will widen, with the median age in Tasmania in 2033 predicted to be 44, while nationally it will be 40.
The Centre for Population says that is, in part, due to the comparatively large proportion of young Tasmanians who leave the state in search of work or study.
Tasmania already has teething problems when it comes to population growth, so now that the population is getting older, just how well prepared is the island state?
NUMBER OF TASMANIANS AGED OVER 85 YEARS (Source: Centre for Population) | ||
|---|---|---|
Hobart | Regional Tasmania | |
2022-23 | 5,900 | 7,500 |
2032-33 | 10,400 | 14,100 |
Experts say it will be "tricky" for Tasmania to cater for such rapid growth in the over 85 demographic. (AAP: Darren England)
'There's quite a shift'
SGS Economics and Planning urban planner and economist Ellen Witte said it would be "tricky" for Tasmania to cater for such rapid growth in the over-85 demographic.
"That increase is around 88 per cent in the regions [over 10 years], versus 76 per cent in the city, so there's quite a shift happening there, where we see the regions are ageing much more rapidly," Ms Witte said.
"With all this extra demand for care in regional areas, we need carers, and if we see the younger population, especially, growing in the cities, who is going to care for people in the regions?"
Ms Witte anticipated a rapid increase in demand for healthcare, especially home care packages, in coming years, and said it would be wise for the Tasmanian government to advocate for more federal funding toward the program.
"At the moment, it is already very difficult for older people to qualify for these packages. They're often waiting long [periods] … If we don't address these problems, it's going to be worse."
Ms Witte did, however, identify strengths that Tasmania already had and could build on in order to cater for the boom.
"There's very strong social cohesion and people do look after one another, so that's a great thing,"she said.
"The other thing I've seen in several regional towns is that there are community-owned or based aged care providers in the regions and they provide things [such as] nursing home care and also retirement living and home care packages.
"I think these community-based providers could be a very good solution and model to roll out throughout the regions, and I already know of this model rolling out in Longford and New Norfolk."
Tasmania 'not placed appropriately' to deal with growth
The Australian Medical Association's Tasmanian president Dr John Saul works on Hobart's eastern shore as well as the regional town of Nubeena.
He said Tasmania was "not placed in any way appropriately to deal with any growth in population".
"We're already 10 per cent behind in our spending on public hospitals, our primary care is falling well behind in terms of the service levels we need to provide," he said.
"We're behind before we've even started to compensate for future growth."
He said that, while the benefits elderly people brought to society were "immeasurable", they do need more care.
"If we're not even placed to cater for what's happening now, we will be in a disastrous position in 10 years' time with this population growth," he said.
"We need to get back to ground zero with our current services, a 10-per-cent increase in hospital spending to clear the log jam is so vitally important."
Ageism rife in Australia
According to the Council on the Ageing Tasmania chief executive Craig Chadwick, ageism is rife, Australia-wide, and is something that needs to be confronted as we welcome the shift in demographics.
"Whether it's intended or not intended, it's still present in our communities and it will be an ongoing challenge for us to eradicate over time," Mr Chadwick said.
He said he was optimistic about the plans the state and federal government had in place to ensure people can age with dignity, but time was not "on our side".
"There's a lot of work to be done. There's always work to be done," he said.
"Every generation and community has evolving needs and it's how we adapt to those needs."
The Tasmanian government said it was investing in health and health infrastructure to ensure people got the care they needed, both now and into the future.
"Last year's budget included record health funding of $11.2 billion over four years, and we are also developing innovative services to relieve the pressure on our hospitals, as we know that, when people are treated in the community when appropriate, they recover sooner," a spokesperson said.
"Given aged care and GPs are a federal responsibility, it is essential that the federal government lifts [its] game in these areas, especially given their importance to older Tasmanians."
The Tasmanian government said it supported the state's existing Active Ageing Strategy, with a new strategy being developed.