Inquiry examining NDIS spending cuts told 240,000 people would exit the scheme

More than 240,000 people would exit the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) over four years, according to modelling as part of a plan to cut spending on the multi-billion-dollar program.

Health Minister Mark Butler said in April the federal government overhaul of the NDIS would result in 160,000 fewer people on the scheme by 2031 compared to today.

Treasury modelling revealed that figure was a combination of 80,000 new entrants expected between now and 2031 and 240,000 people exiting the NDIS due to the government's changes.

If there was no change, 190,000 people were expected to join, but the government estimates 110,000 of those would be diverted in the overhaul.

The inquiry heard that would mean about 350,000 fewer people on the NDIS in five years' time than if the government did not tighten the scheme.

"Basically, at that 2031 point the total number of people expected to exit the scheme is 240,000 — the total number of people to be diverted is 110,000," Health, Disability and Ageing department first assistant secretary Anthea Long told the hearing.

Ms Long stressed that the figures were "high level assumptions", which were not yet subject to further details about the exact assessment thresholds for access to the scheme and how it would work in practice.

Under questioning, she said the figures could not be broken down by state and territory, or by regional or remote locations.

The government expects the changes will save more than $30 billion over the next four years alone.

McAllister says 'we've thought really carefully'

Disability and the National Disability Insurance Scheme Minister Jenny McAllister was asked multiple times if she had heard anything during the inquiry that convinced her to make changes to the policy. 

It comes as the three-day hearings received 4,000 public submissions in just over a fortnight.

Ms McAllister said the government was waiting to see the committee's report on the hearings and would action any unintended consequences that might be identified.

"We are convinced of course that the NDIS requires significant change to get it back on track," she told the ABC.

All states outside of Queensland have agreed to set up new lower touch supports to deliver their own version of the Thriving Kids model, in exchange for more hospital funding from the Commonwealth.

However, state ministers have said the significant number of people estimated to exit the NDIS did not yet have clearly defined alternate support arrangements.

Ms McAllister said she was also looking forward to working with the states and territories.

"We are clear that the NDIS was never intended to be the only support system available for people with disability.

"In fact, there are 5.5 million Australians with disability and only 760,000 of those people are currently on the NDIS."

Mr Butler said the government was committed to passing the NDIS bill before parliament rose for the winter break in July.

Shadow NDIS Minister Melissa McIntosh said the government should not rush changes that would affect so many people.

"Throughout the hearings, witnesses have been telling the committee that people will die as a result of these changes. It is our responsibility to listen to their concerns," Ms McIntosh said.

"In the rush to cut expenditure, we cannot forget that there are human lives at the other end. People are not line items on a spreadsheet."