ASX ends week on a high as investors await SpaceX share launch — as it happened

And that's it for the week.

ABC News will have coverage tomorrow morning of how SpaceX's debut on the Nasdaq goes overnight.

And the Business team's David Taylor will wrap it up for 7pm News.

Will it make it to the Moon, or even Mars, or will it explode on the launchpad?

We'll mop up the fallout either way on Monday's blog.

With the rare exceptions of energy (falling oil prices), technology (some tech jitters/SpaceX IPO overshadowing) and healthcare, the ASX had a stonking rise today.

The ASX 200 closed up 2%, with the All Ords only just behind.

Miners were the standout performers (sector up 3.7%), with Genesis Minerals leading the ASX 200 gains, closely followed by Liontown and PLS Group.

Gold miners also benefited from a rally in the precious metal after recent steep falls, while the big diversified miners BHP (+3.5%) and Rio Tinto (+2.4%) also jumped.

Real estate (+1.6%), consumer cyclicals (+1.5%) and financials (+1.4%) were also well into the black.

Global X  ETF investment strategist Justin Lin reckons the surge in mining stocks and other discretionary stocks is a vote of confidence in the broader economic outlook, especially globally.

"The price action suggests investors are becoming increasingly comfortable with the idea that the worst of the oil shock may be behind us, with crude slipping below $US90 a barrel for the first time since April," he notes.

"That is helping to ease fears around a prolonged period of elevated energy costs and, by extension, reducing some of the concern surrounding the economic outlook."

However, he believes the relatively weak performance in tech today may have something to do with the $US1.8 trillion gorilla about to hit the Nasdaq overnight.

"The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO may also be drawing liquidity away from other growth-oriented segments, creating an additional headwind for software names," he speculates.

"It's certainly not without interest."

That's how the Justice overseeing a Federal Court case between a family-owned Mitre 10 franchise and the Wesfarmers hardware giant Bunnings summarised it at the end of today.

The case was brought by store owner David Woodman. He's arguing that Bunnings will "substantially (lessen) competition" by setting up next door to his regional Queensland store.

The main claim is that:

"Once Bunnings Warehouse opens at the Jimboomba Site, it is commercially likely that Mitre 10 Jimboomba will become non-viable within the short to medium-term and therefore would have to close."

Bunnings' barrister Garry Rich SC vigorously defended this case for Bunnings today. His summary of it in the Federal Court is Mr Woodman's claim is "plainly wrong", arguing:

"There is nothing anti-competitive or unlawful of Bunnings depriving Mitre 10 of sales. That is the essence of competition. That's what competitors do."

At one point, the hearing even heard comparisons of hardware retail competition to Apple versus Nokia. You'd presume that Bunnings here is supposed to be former, and Mitre 10 franchisees are being compared to the humble 3310.

"This is a very different case to the mobile phone case," argued Mr Woodman's lawyer at one point.

Today's hearings wasn't on the actual case itself, but was about a costs order that could let Mr Woodman and his legal team pursue the retail giant, without facing huge costs if they lose.

After about six hours of hearings, Justice Bromwich has reserved his judgement until sometime before July 3.

That's the title of Rabobank's latest "Global Daily" note, today written by New York-based cross-asset macro strategist Molly Schwartz.

"Yesterday's announcement would constitute the 39th peace deal declared since the onset of the war," she writes.

"It should be noted that the provided list of 'all parties involved' does not include one party who some would argue is pretty heavily involved … Iran.

"Perhaps Iran was counted in the 'and others' part of the list, but this wouldn't be the first time the US proposed a deal it thinks Iran can't refuse, just for Iran to either outright refuse it, or announce that it never received such a peace deal in the first place.

"It should also be noted that some of the 'involved parties' who were listed, like Israel and Pakistan, have confirmed that they had not been informed of any agreement at the time the peace deal was initially announced."

The peace deal that may or may not actually exist was enough to send oil prices falling and share prices surging, despite worrying signs of inflation in the US and a rate hike last night by the European Central Bank.

Swissquote's Ipek Ozkardeskaya was similarly scathing of the market's apparent acceptance of Donald Trump's pronouncements at face value.

"It was a good old day where US president Donald Trump threatened to hit Iran hard — oil spiked, stocks fell — then he said that the countries were 'close to a deal' to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz — oil fell, stocks rallied," she notes.

"What's unbelievable is that after three months of this nonsense, markets still move on words that have little substance. Alas.

"This morning, US crude is testing the $US85 per barrel level to the downside, its lowest level since the early days of the Iranian conflict. Yet there is no confirmation from Iranian media, and there is nothing to suggest that this time will be the charm.

"But US and European futures are in positive territory at the time of writing, before the European open, with European indices leading gains, showing how eagerly European investors await the end of this conflict."

Shame on who?

Thanks Peter. It sounds like you experienced part of a broader phenomenon that's taking place right now (albeit an extreme version).

Auction clearance rates are down a bit (in Sydney), prices have declined a bit, and the number of days homes are listed on the market has lengthened. Real estate agents say the RBA's rate hikes, combined with the tax changes in the federal budget, have created a lot of uncertainty.

This weekend's episode of That's Business with Alan Kohler is now live.

Alan Kohler spoke to Katharina Mildren, founder and creative director of fashion label Katharina Lou.

Katharina started her fashion label at her kitchen table not long after finishing university.

A few years on, the business is growing at 50 per cent a year, employs half a dozen full-time staff, and has built a customer base that extends well beyond Australia.

This is partly a classic founder story - how to start a business, manage cash flow, deal with stock, and grow without losing control.

But it is also a story about how a new generation of founders are rewriting the rules of retail: building brands through influencers, social media, scarcity, pop-ups, and direct relationships with customers rather than relying on permanent shopfronts.

Alan Kohler spoke to Katharina about how her brand grew from a kitchen-table idea into a fast-moving fashion business, what it takes to scale in a crowded market, and why modern retail is as much about identity, community, and online momentum as it is about the clothes themselves.

Got a burning business question?

Send a short voice recording to the ABC Business Daily team at abcbusinessdaily@abc.net.au

Bureau of Statistics data out today show the number of short-term trips by Australian residents to Indonesia have jumped by 16% over the last year.

The ABS's latest monthly arrivals and departures data shows the three leading destination countries Australian residents returned from in April, from short-term trips, were:

• Indonesia (161,700 trips)
• New Zealand (135,190)
• Japan (108,540)

In April last year, the ABS recorded 139,910 trips by Australian residents returning from short-term trips to Indonesia.

In April this year, that number was 161,700 trips (an increase of 15.6%).

Bunnings' barrister is getting to the nut of the company's defence of a case brought by a Mitre 10 franchisee.

David Woodman is challenging a Bunnings store opening under the Competition and Consumer Act, arguing that Bunnings will "substantially (lessen) competition" by setting up next door to his regional Queensland store.

The main claim is that:

"Once Bunnings Warehouse opens at the Jimboomba Site, it is commercially likely that Mitre 10 Jimboomba will become non-viable within the short to medium-term and therefore would have to close."

Bunnings' barrister Garry Rich SC more recently argued on behalf of the competition regulator, where he successfully won the ACCC's case against another giant retailer, Coles.

Now he's on the other side of the coin, vigorously defending this case for Bunnings. His summary of it in the Federal Court is Mr Woodman's claim is "plainly wrong", arguing:

"There is nothing anti-competitive or unlawful of Bunnings depriving Mitre 10 of sales. That is the essence of competition. That's what competitors do."

Got any thoughts on this case? Send us some comments.

Tony Sycamore from IG says the ASX200 is on track for its best week since early April.

He says its strong gains this week have been driven by a continued run of softer domestic data, which has prompted a handful of influential economists to call an end to the Reserve Bank's tightening cycle.*

"Unsurprisingly, the dovish repricing in the rates market which now sees just 13 basis points of RBA rate hikes embedded in the curve for 2026 (from 24 basis points this time last week) has provided a strong tailwind for the interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the ASX200," he says in a note.

"Consumer Discretionary has been the standout performer, surging 8.17% for the week.

"Consumer Staples has followed closely, rising 7.49%, while the Real Estate sector has added 4.96% to round out the top three.

"In contrast, the local technology sector has been a clear laggard, shedding 4.23% and handing back more than half of last week’s impressive 7.68% gain.

*Although, as we saw in an earlier post, Westpac's chief economist Luci Ellis (former RBA) thinks the RBA will still lift rates twice more this year (in August, and then in September).

That's what is being argued about in the Federal Court right now, as part of a hearing into a Mitre 10 franchisee's claim against the Wesfarmers-owned hardware giant Bunnings.

David Woodman is challenging a Bunnings store opening under the Competition and Consumer Act, arguing that Bunnings will "substantially (lessen) competition" by setting up next door to his regional Queensland store.

The main claim is that:

"once Bunnings Warehouse opens at the Jimboomba Site, it is commercially likely that Mitre 10 Jimboomba will become non-viable within the short to medium term and therefore would have to close."

Mr Woodman is seeking an injuction preventing the store from opening while the case runs, plus damages.

Bunnings' barrister Garry Rich SC is now dealing with the claim that the Mitre 10 would need to close if Bunnings came to town, and he's arguing it's an "assertion" without enough proof.

He also noted that the Mitre 10 could likely lose sales to Bunnings if it opens up, but that the family-owned store in the small town of Jimboomba looks like it could do with some extra competition.

 "The store is making a very healthy profit on its sales... and it looks like it could do with some competition," he noted.

"This is competition. We want to take as many sales as we can."

With him adding:

"(The applicant's case) does not identify how Bunnings' conduct effects a process that is competition."

• ASX 200: +1.91% at 8,797 (live numbers below)
• Australian dollar: -0.14% at 70.39 US cents 
• Wall Street: Dow Jones (+1.9%), S&P 500 (+1.75%), Nasdaq (+3.3%)
• Europe: FTSE (+0.5%),  Stoxx 600 (+0.5%) 
• Spot gold: -0.54% to $US4,191/ounce 
• Oil (Brent crude):  -1.76% at $US88.77/barrel 
• Iron ore: +0.12% to $US101.55/tonne 
• Bitcoin: +0.48% to $US63,646

Prices current around 2:15pm AEST

That Federal Court case about hardware store competition that I told you about earlier today has just resumed from lunch, with Bunnings' barrister Garry Rich SC now getting into the nuts of the defence case.

You can watch it live here.

You might remember the story of the claimant, David Woodman, from an episode of Four Corners last year. He is battling to stop Bunnings setting up literally next door to his hardware store in the regional Queensland town, Jimboomba.

Mr Woodman has since lodged a case in the Federal Court, challenging the Bunnings store opening under the Competition and Consumer Act.

His case argues the Bunnings store is:

"....likely to have the effect of substantially lessening competition in a market for the supply of hardware products to retail customers who reside within approximately a 10km-17.5km radius of Mitre 10 Jimboomba."

Bunnings' barrister (who recently won a bombshell case for the competition regulator) is now going over Mr Woodman's claims, with Garry Rich SC currently pondering why it took years for him to lodge his Federal Court claim.

"There is no explanation in the evidence for the applicant's lengthy delay," he just told the court.

Great read from my Victorian newsroom colleague Richard Willingham about the looming election here.

By-elections and polls are one thing.

But Victoria has 88 seats, a three-term incumbent government and an insurgent One Nation knocking on the door.

(The party has one member, in the upper house of the state parliament).

Making the next state election one to watch.

Always a range of views here.

Take Dale Gillham, chief analyst and founder at Wealth Within,  who questions whether crypto’s original "digital gold" narrative is broken.

"Bitcoin and the crypto market built its reputation on a simple promise: buy and hold it, and eventually you'll be rewarded but right now, that belief is being tested. Following one of its biggest declines in recent years, roughly half of all Bitcoin holders are now sitting on a loss.

"Think about it, millions of people who were told crypto was the future are now watching their investment trade below what they paid. While it's easy to believe this when you're making money, it's much harder when you're losing it. If enough investors begin questioning the story, panic can quickly replace conviction and if that happens, this may be the precursor to a larger sell-off.

"Adding to the concern, last week Bitcoin just suffered its worst weekly decline since the collapse of FTX in 2022. The difference this time is there was no major scandal, no fraud, and no exchange failure, the market simply sold off. That alone should make investors stop and think.

"For years, crypto supporters argued it was digital gold: a place to store wealth when inflation rises, governments print money, or uncertainty takes hold. Yet during the latest bout of geopolitical tension, gold moved higher while Bitcoin fell sharply.

"Even billionaire investor Mark Cuban, once one of Bitcoin's strongest supporters, recently revealed he had sold most of his holdings after becoming disappointed with how Bitcoin recently behaved. His argument was simple: when the hour of truth came, the bitcoin price didn’t act the way it was sold.

"Then there's another challenge. Much of the speculative capital that once flowed into cryptocurrency is now flowing into artificial intelligence. Investors can buy companies building AI software, data centres, semiconductors and the infrastructure powering the next technology revolution. The excitement, momentum and speculation that once fuelled crypto is increasingly being redirected elsewhere. History shows that money loves a new story and right now that is AI.

"None of this means Bitcoin is finished given it has survived brutal crashes before and recovered every time. Long-term believers will argue this is simply another chapter in a highly volatile journey, but the questions are becoming harder to ignore. If Bitcoin doesn't rise when inflation rises, doesn't hold up during periods of uncertainty, and falls when investors become nervous, what role does it play in a portfolio? That's the debate investors are having right now.

"Bitcoin may recover again as it has surprised critics many times before but for the first time in a long time, the market is no longer asking how high can Bitcoin go. It's asking whether the original story still holds true."

Earlier, I posted about the hype cycle of AI, and yes, the graph follows similar lines to the Dunning-Kruger Effect (although it is broken down into categories, so it's not a straight comparison).

If you're wondering what this is, here's a fun one from the ABC's Dr Karl (Karl Kruszelnicki) that explains it. 

Two years ago, the government of African nation Ethiopia banned the import of non-electric cars.

You can read about it here, but it's a reversal of the usual car market economics, where older and out of date cars are sent to poorer nations.

The nation installed a lot of EV infrastructure, changed the tax base and went all in.

According to Reuters, "more than 115,000 EVs are now on Ethiopia’s roads, accounting for about 8% of the national fleet".

More than 90% of the nation's electricity comes from renewable sources, mainly hydro and solar.

A fascinating short read.

Good afternoon, Emilia here from the business reporting team.

Today I am sitting in on a Federal Court case between a family owned Mitre 10 franchisee and the Wesfarmers-owned hardware giant Bunnings.

You might remember David Woodman's story from an episode of Four Corners last year, where he detailed his battle to stop a Bunnings setting up literally next door to his hardware store in the regional Queensland town, Jimboomba.

Mr Woodman has since lodged a case in the Federal Court, challenging the Bunnings store opening under the Competition and Consumer Act.

His case argues the Bunnings store is:

"....likely to have the effect of substantially lessening competition in a market for the supply of hardware products to retail customers who reside within approximately a 10km-17.5km radius of Mitre 10 Jimboomba."

We've heard from Mr Woodman's lawyers for several hours today at a hearing, where they have argued that Bunnings has "substantial market power".

They are also seeking an order that could allow Mr Woodman to fight this David versus Goliath battle without incurring Bunnings' costs if he loses.

Bunnings has previously vigorously defended itself against anti-competitive concerns, and it has previously told the ABC that its Jimboomba store would bring more choice and competition to the area, and provide local jobs.

We're now hearing from Bunnings' legal representative, Garry Rich SC. You might recall his name: the barrister recently won a bombshell case for the competition regulator the ACCC against Coles, over the supermarket giant's fake discounts.

He got some time to submit a case around that costs order, before the hearing adjourned for lunch. I'll bring you more soon.

If you want something to do over lunch, check out the Four Corners on ABC iView.

I'm a fan of economist Cameron Kusher, formerly of REA, who now has a new gig and a Substack where he writes.

Here's his take on the NAB Monthly Business Survey May 2026 that was discussed earlier.

• Business confidence jumped 10 points to -14 index points, still deeply pessimistic but less so with improvements driven by mining, wholesale and transport & utilities but with trends negative across all industries.
• Business conditions were unchanged at 3 index points with the trading component 1 index point higher over the month, profitability one index point lower and employment 1 index point higher but with trading the only particularly strong component.
• An encouraging component of the release was that the quarterly rate of change in labour costs, purchase costs and final product prices has slowed with growth rates for purchase costs and final product prices down significantly from a month ago.

What does it mean?

"While business confidence was higher, it remains deeply pessimistic and business conditions are still positive but well below their long-term average. As consumer confidence craters and businesses face higher taxes confidence and conditions are easing. As mentioned it is encouraging to see that growth in costs moderating but it is hard to see any significant improvement in business sentiment over the coming months."

The Roy Morgan Business Confidence hit a new record low in May after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates.

It's not as regarded as the NAB Business Confidence survey, which rose in April, but is still below long-term averages.

In May 2026, Roy Morgan Business Confidence hit a new record low of 76.1 and has now fallen by 28.9pts so far during 2026. 

This result is 0.4pts below the previous record low reached a month ago and 0.8 points below the pandemic low of 76.9 in April 2020.

Driving the fall? Big drops in "sentiment regarding the next 12 months both for business finances and the Australian economy."

Other elements worth noting:

"The net proportion of businesses expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year plummeted a large 36.7% from December 2025 with a majority of 59% (up 18.2% points so far this year) now expecting ‘bad times’ and only 38.5% (down 18.5% points) expecting ‘good times’.

"In addition, the net proportion of businesses expecting to be ‘better off financially’ this time next year plunged by 32.5% points. Now just 29% (down 17.4% points so far this year) of businesses expect to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year and 34.1% (up 15.1% points) expect to be ‘worse off’.

"The net proportion of businesses expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years dropped by 25% points with a large majority of 72% (up 10.5% points so far this year) of businesses expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years and only 18.9% (down 14.5% points) expecting ‘good times’."