Clock ticking on 'operational stress levels' for global oil supply — as it happened

As much as it pains me to say it, this is where we depart.

But we'll be back tomorrow!

Wall Street futures are in the green, so that's something.

And the Australian dollar is resting quietly at precisely 70 US cents (at 5pm AEST).

Until tomorrow, take care.

Good question, Stan.

DT

The Australian ETF industry has set a new record, reaching $364 billion in funds under management after a third consecutive month of net flows above $5 billion, according to Betashares.

"Strong inflows," Betashares said, "combined with positive global market performance, pushed the industry above $350 billion for the first time."

In December 2024, the Federal Court found that collapsed contracts for difference (CFD) issuer, Union Standard International Group Pty Ltd (USG) and two of its former corporate authorised representatives, BrightAU Capital Pty Ltd (trading as TradeFred) and Maxi EFX Global AU Pty Ltd (trading as EuropeFX), engaged in systemic unconscionable conduct as well as a raft of other contraventions of the law between 2018 and 2020.

Today the Federal Court has ordered total penalties against the three defendants in this matter of $300.2 million.

The Court has granted a temporary stay of the orders until 13 July 2026.

ASIC told the ABC it will be issuing a media release about this outcome shortly.

There are unconfirmed reports that some well-known journalists at Channel 7 (including Seven News) have just had their positions made redundant.

More to come

Investors braced for a horror session today after Wall Street's slump, and while the market fell sharply at the open, buyers of energy stocks moved in.

It wasn't enough to keep the index above water.

The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 0.23% to 8,633.

The bottom performing stocks in this index were ALCOA CORPORATION and ORA BANDA MINING LTD, down 8.19% and 5.50% respectively.

The index has lost 0.61% for the last five days but is virtually unchanged year to date.

As the ASX settles trades for the day, here's how the best and worst finished up.

You can see Alcoa and Newmont Corporation were on the nose today.

Australian wages rose 0.8% in May, according to the latest Commonwealth Bank Wage and Labour Insights report.

It's a monthly report tracking pay and employment conditions across the economy.

Annual wage growth for May was steady at 3.1% a year, unchanged from April and despite a spike in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in April. 

It's a monthly report tracking pay and employment conditions across the economy.

Annual wage growth for May was steady at 3.1% a year, unchanged from April and despite a spike in the unemployment rate to 4.5% in April. 

“Wages growth has been remarkably stable in recent months, and our May data continues to point to a steady state,” CBA economist Harry Ottley.

The price of gold rallied in Asia trade today.

It's since settled down to be even on the day.

The price of spot gold was $4,077 an ounce at 3:20pm AEST, up 0.1%.

It's now down 27% from its record high in January of roughly $5,600 an ounce.

The Treasurer Jim Chalmers has responded to some of the post-budget criticisms of the proposed changes to capital gains tax.

"A lot of the post-budget debate has focused on the perceived impacts of changes to the capital gains tax that a founder or small business owner might pay one day upon exit," Jim Chalmers said.

"This has ignored that the vast majority of active businesses — over 90 per cent – remain eligible for very significant CGT concessions.

"And we’ve got a consultation process underway on the arrangements for start-ups," he said.

"The debate has also ignored the $3.5 billion of tax reforms that support business risk taking and investment at the critical points in the life cycle of a business.

"At the heart of these changes is the decision to permanently reintroduce two-year loss carry back for companies with a turnover under $1 billion.

"This achieves two key things for businesses: it supports them to make riskier investments and acts as an automatic stabiliser during difficult periods. 

"Treasury estimates up to 85,000 companies will benefit."

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said this year will be difficult for many Australian households as cost-of-living pressures continue to bite.

We know 2026 will be a difficult year in the global economy and we see that in our own forecasts.

This is the largest oil supply disruption on record.

A billion barrels of seaborne oil supply has already been lost since the Strait of Hormuz closed only three months ago.

The Brent oil price is 30 per cent higher than before the conflict. 

And prices in the futures market remain above the pre-conflict price until 2030. 

The war is weighing on growth here too, softening our labour market and pushing up prices, first in fuel then more broadly.

Treasury expects inflation to peak around 5% in the coming months and then ease to the middle of the target band in the middle of next year. 

The Treasurer Jim Chalmers is addressing the Morgan Stanley Australia Summit.

I will be blogging his speech over the next 20 minutes.

CAPEX grew 6.5% in the March quarter — six times the median expectation and the fastest since 2012.

Data centres have been a big part of that story, but only one part of our strong performance.

The forward outlook has also improved. 

For this financial year and next, CAPEX has been revised up at every estimate and is expected to be around $200 billion.

CAPEX performance was a key reason why private demand dominated GDP growth in the National Accounts released last week. 

The Federal Court has found that training provider RSA Express (trading as Express Online Training) engaged in misleading or deceptive conduct and made false or misleading representations in relation to several of its online courses, in proceedings brought by the ACCC.

The courses involved certification for responsible service of alcohol (RSA) and construction industry induction (White Card).

The Court found that, at various times between 2019 and 2023, Express Online Training breached the Australian Consumer Law when it represented to consumers that they would only pay, or be asked to pay, for the relevant courses after they had passed. 

It was also represented to consumers they could undertake relevant courses and obtain a certificate within the same day, when this was not the case.

The misleading statements included "Same Day Interim Certificate"; "Pay Only When You Pass"; or "Best of all — with us you don't have to pay until you pass!".

These statements were made by Express Online Training in Google and Bing advertisements or on Express Online Training’s website.

The ACCC’s investigation revealed that a significant number of consumers who paid for relevant RSA and White Card courses did not complete the full course. The Court found that Express Online Training earned significant revenue from consumers who did not complete the course.

“The ACCC was very concerned that many consumers who paid for an Express Online Training course prior to completion did not go on to complete the course,” ACCC deputy chair Mick Keogh said.

The Court will decide on penalties and other orders following a separate hearing at a later date. The ACCC is seeking declarations, pecuniary penalties, injunctions, corrective notices and consumer redress.

WIN Network has confirmed it held a meeting with all NBN News staff to announce a new operating restructure.

It's reported by mediaweek that dozens of jobs, including reporters and camera operators, at NBN News will be axed, citing the company's internal documents.

In a statement, a WIN spokesperson told the ABC that the company would "conduct the process transparently and collaboratively".

"While the restructure impacts some roles, WIN is prioritising redeployment opportunities across the Network.

"The WIN Network has entered a formal consultation period, inviting employee feedback on the proposal by June 15, 2026."

Earlier this month, we reported that NBN staff were notified that the current one-hour weeknight news bulletin, anchored from Newcastle, would be cut to 30 minutes and shifted to 5:30pm.

NBN's weekend bulletins have also been axed, including its highest-rating Sunday night news.

You can read more here.

It's at about this time of day local traders and investors look for cues from offshore as to the "mood" and direction of the market.

On that front, Wall Street Futures are in positive territory, Japan's stock market is modestly lower, while China's main index is down 1%.

Bond markets are quiet.

The Australian dollar is steady.

Alcoa is down 8% to $93.59 at 1:30pm AEST.

There's no ASX announcement from the company.

Chief financial officer Molly Beerman reportedly told delegates at the Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference in the US that higher production costs will make its alumina business unprofitable this quarter.

Beerman warned that its alumina business is facing losses from energy disruptions and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The S&P/ASX 200 is lower today, dropping 46.50 points or 0.54% to 8,606.80, despite crossing above its 20-day moving average.

The bottom performing stocks in this index are ALCOA CORPORATION and RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED, down 8.37% and 7.60% respectively.

Over the last five days, the index has lost 0.91% and 1.23% year to date.

The Australian dollar has stabilised at around 70 US cents.

It was last at these levels in early April.

Indeed, on April 8, Iran accepted a ceasefire deal, based on a 10-point plan, but emphasised that "this does not signify the termination of the war".

From that point, the Australian dollar rallied to 72.6 US cents.

The latest slide is due to rising Middle East tensions and a firming US dollar as the market prices in a Federal Reserve "rates on hold" decision rather than an easing of policy.

At 11:15 AEST the local currency was buying 69.99 US cents.

There's been plenty of volatility on global commodities markets this week.

Here's a snapshot of some key commodities prices at 1pm AEST.