New leader, old problem for WA Liberals as Basil Zempilas flirts with One Nation

Basil Zempilas's flirtation with One Nation is a classic example of how the more things change in politics, the more they stay the same.

Addressing a business breakfast yesterday, the opposition leader, unprompted, declared leaders needed to understand that ignoring One Nation "would be to ignore the will of the people".

He had an "open mind" about a relationship with the maybe not-so-minor party, which upon further probing was revealed to range from preference deals to forming a coalition government.

One Nation was not a threat, he insisted, but an opportunity to unseat Labor.

"If people's frustration in Western Australia is so elevated that they are in a mood for change, as the leader of the Liberal-National alliance … I would be derelict in my duty not to look at all options to help bring that about," Zempilas said.

'Beef' for a long time

The One Nation conundrum has long troubled the Liberals.

In the early 2000s, John Howard was uncompromising in his view that One Nation should be last on every Liberal how-to-vote card.

By the 2017 state election though, Howard was backing the WA Liberals' decision to do a preference deal.

It was one that then-premier Colin Barnett spent his final days in the job growing increasingly frustrated at having to defend.

"The One Nation party may get 10 per cent, to 10 per cent or more of the vote, so I have to recognise that reality," he told the ABC at the time.

The deal ended up making an already uphill battle even harder for Barnett, whose party lost 18 seats in a Labor landslide.

The attention devoted to defending the One Nation deal, rather than discussing actual policies, as well as the perception it created, was seen to have contributed to the result. 

In the wash-up, ABC election guru Antony Green said One Nation's preferences did not change a single result in any lower house seat, while Liberal preferences played no part in One Nation's upper house wins.

Barnett later told the ABC it would be "incredibly foolish" for federal Liberals to try a similar deal, describing the attempt in WA as "incredibly damaging". 

Attempt to rebuild

Zempilas is the latest Liberal leader to try and rebuild a party that has struggled to find its feet since that 2017 drubbing.

He has attempted to distance himself from One Nation's more extreme policies, saying: "There are lots of things that I have seen and heard from One Nation that I wouldn't say or be involved in."

The party has changed, Zempilas believes, and so too have voters' attitudes.

Which is true: the current poll results are record-breaking.

The flip side is that they are just poll results, years out from an election, which could change very quickly.

Rod Caddies, One Nation's leader in WA, doesn't think that will happen.

It has left him certain the party will win lower house seats at the next poll in 2029.

The attention from the Liberals is welcome, Caddies said, but would not be changing his party's direction.

"If Liberals decide that's the direction they are heading too, then there's a possibility of anything happening in the future," he said, noting he hadn't discussed the idea with Zempilas.

'Crucial' time for Labor and Liberals

The calculation Zempilas's Liberals will be weighing up over the years leading up to the 2029 election — informed by the results of four other state elections in the meantime — is whether the risks are worth any potential rewards.

In 2017, One Nation was polling in the mid-teens in the state, less than half what the party is currently.

That could dull the effectiveness of any of Labor's attacks.

Long-time WA political observer Peter Kennedy said the red team should not forget that the ramifications of One Nation's rise would impact its side too.

"The rise of One Nation is being driven by dissatisfaction with the major parties," he said.

This made it a crucial period for Labor and the Liberals "to reassess just what's going on and to react to it".

At a state and federal level, Labor has more comfortable leads to soften any losses.

Deputy Premier Rita Saffioti was yesterday playing down the latest polls.

"There's always these challenges for major political parties, but we need to continue to focus on the things that matter to Western Australians," she said.

Kennedy points out the Liberals do not have that same luxury, which is why, as he sees it, Zempilas is "facing up to reality".

"Given the position of the Liberal Party at the moment, to sort of turn their back on One Nation would be ludicrous," he said.

"So Basil Zempilas is obviously putting up the flag, seeing what the reaction is."

One Nation voters could be hard to win back if Zempilas distanced himself too much now, then felt he needed them as the election got closer.

By the same token, linking himself to a party known for its unpredictability so early could be an anchor he struggles to shake if he later decides it's not worth it.

Only time will tell if One Nation drags the Liberals down again or becomes a life raft on the way to a political resurrection.