NSW Premier Chris Minns thinks One Nation is 'genuine threat' to Labor and to his seat

Chris Minns knows voters don't want a complacent premier, but in the face of One Nation's surge, one statement strains credulity.

"I'm worried about my own seat," he said.

Those worries might have been well-founded before the 2023 state election, when he held the seat of Kogarah by a razor-thin margin of 0.1 per cent.

However, the NSW premier now enjoys a healthy 18 per cent buffer in the electorate he has held since 2015.

One Nation's rising popularity is far more likely to damage the Coalition.

The NSW system of optional preferential voting risks splintering right-leaning voters into different camps and robbing the Coalition of preferences it would otherwise expect if voters had to number every box on the ballot paper.

Even still, the premier doesn't think One Nation leader Pauline Hanson's presence in the upcoming election campaign will do him any favours.

"I think this is a genuine threat to us in the Labor Party," he told Stateline.

Ms Hanson's party undoubtedly has the potential to take a big swag of votes from Labor.

In the 2023 election, One Nation came second in the seat of Cessnock, winning 15 per cent of the primary vote.

It captured 14 per cent in the Labor-held seat of Camden and 8 per cent in Penrith.

"They're going to have a big crack at this election campaign," Mr Minns said.

"And it's going to be unusual, because we've not had effectively a three-corner contest before.

"But, we're ready for it."

Immigration no 'excuse'

Central to One Nation's platform is a demand to dramatically cut immigration, capping visas at 130,000 per year to ease pressure on housing and infrastructure.

The premier said there should not be a "formal link" between immigration and housing supply, but it should be "part of the consideration".

"I don't want the immigration debate to obscure the state government's responsibility to get on with the job of building houses," he said.

"There's been too many excuses and not enough homes."

He's right about that.

NSW needed to build 75,000 homes a year to meet its original targets under the national housing accord.

Last year it built about 45,000.

The government points to "green shoots" in the data, boasting 13,358 housing completions in the December quarter, representing a six-year-high.

The seasonally adjusted figure from the Australian Bureau of Statistics was 12,194, but it was still an improvement on the year before.

With the election just over nine months away, the premier will need to show a continued upward trajectory to convince voters his planning reforms are bearing fruit.

"We're starting to see, finally, the first signs of growth," he said.

Don't expect 'miracles'

This month's state budget will be the last before the election.

While it presents an ideal opportunity for sweeteners in the form of cost-of-living relief, the premier is deliberately keeping voters' appetites in check.

"Families are under enormous amounts of pressure," he said.

"We'll have more to say on budget day, but we're somewhat limited by the tight economics that we're in."

In other words, any cost of living relief will be modest to avoid accusations the government is stoking inflation and, by extension, interest rates.

"We'll do what we can, but we can't promise miracles," he said.

With its focus on spending restraint, the government's ability to excite voters is similarly limited.

While the opposition has vowed to build at least one new metro, location and funding to be confirmed, the premier has a far more modest offering.

"Our vision is we want to live in a state where people can afford to buy a home.

"Where we can build life-changing infrastructure without selling off assets, and we can balance the budget without putting a wages cap in place that smashes hundreds of thousands of hard-working men and women in New South Wales."

As nice as that may sound, it's remarkably similar to the vision he outlined for his first term.

When asked whether voters wanted a "steady as she goes" government, he said he had "no idea".

"We'll find out in March next year."

No early exit

Earlier this year, the premier caused concern at Labor head office — and delight at Liberal HQ — when he publicly declared he wouldn't be premier in 2032.

Assuming he wins in March, that would mean he either planned to step down during the next term, or just months into his third term.

Or, he didn't think he could win two more elections.

The opposition declared the premier had given up on NSW and had "no long-term plan" to lead the state.

Days later, during questioning in a budget estimates hearing, he attempted to clear up the confusion, saying he would "love" to serve a full term.

While some Labor MPs still privately believe he'll make an early exit, the premier told Stateline he would stay put.

"If I was honoured enough to get re-elected, then I would stick around for the full term."

Giving that commitment is easy enough, but keeping it could be harder.