AI may be tightening jobs market, but some roles could see stronger demand

A new Deloitte report has marked 2026 "the year of AI" and said the real "winners" will be organisations that thoughtfully combine human and machine strengths.

The quarterly employment forecast from the major consultancy firm suggests AI is reshaping the labour market, but not necessarily through job losses.

While 82 occupations were identified as likely to be disrupted by AI, there were also several "AI-enhanced" occupations, predicted to see a stronger demand when combined with AI, including leaders, legislators and life scientists.

Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens says occupations where human skills remained central were more likely to benefit.

"That includes roles like CEOs, teachers and nurses, where AI can boost productivity, but the human element is still critical."

Recruitment specialist Evelina Samuels agreed that the current labour market was seeing a job transformation.

"What were once highly operational administration roles are now far more analytical," she said.

"Junior positions are being redesigned into 'people analytics' roles, focused on interpreting the data generated by AI doing the heavy lifting."

Ms Samuels said recent graduates and workers should focus on building capability that worked with AI, not against it.

"The people who will stand out aren't the ones who know every AI tool; they're the ones who can use it thoughtfully and apply judgement," she said.

Report finds AI is slowing rate of hiring

There is still limited evidence of widespread job losses linked directly to AI.

The report found employment was still growing and redundancies remained relatively contained, with economists stressing AI was just one force shaping decisions alongside rising interest rates and broader economic uncertainty.

The analysis points to a growing divide in the employment market, where some roles are expanding while others — particularly white-collar, knowledge-based jobs — are seeing a hiring slowdown.

In occupations most exposed to AI, including software programmers, web developers and even librarians, vacancy rates are already declining faster than the broader labour market.

The list of jobs most exposed to AI has also widened. What was once concentrated in clerical and administrative roles now extends into professional and managerial occupations — many requiring higher levels of education and expertise.

The report said even roles that relied heavily on human interaction were not immune, including tour guides and licensed club managers.

Mr Rumbens said the "disrupted" label did not mean the jobs would be eliminated, but that parts of the work might be assisted or streamlined by AI.

"It's not that you don't need that occupation, but … you could have a lower staffing level in some of those occupations going forward," he said.

Productivity gains may not translate into more jobs

Some business leaders are being more direct about where the shift could lead.

Daniel Petrie, a partner at Australian venture capital firm AirTree, told AFR's AI summit this week that while companies might see productivity gains, they would not necessarily translate into more jobs.

"We pretend that we're going to get this massive productivity gain, and everyone will be employed the same. That's just not true," he said.

Others struck a similar tone. Telstra CEO Vicki Brady warned the company was likely to be smaller by the end of the decade, while Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn said: "Not every role we have today will be preserved."

Lisa Harmer, a former senior communications and marketing professional, is a big believer in AI, leading the integration of it into her team's workflow throughout 2025.

Then, earlier this year, she was unexpectedly swept up in a company restructure, with her senior strategic role being made redundant.

Her position was replaced by a lower-level role, which she ultimately declined.

"It came as a massive shock. I spent a large part of 2025 reassuring my team that AI wasn't going to come for their jobs," she said.

"I still don't really believe that it came for mine, but I do know it has affected many others in my industry.

Ms Samuels, managing director of specialist HR firm Samuels Donegan, said at the senior end of employment, there was pressure emerging, with many organisations downgrading high-paying executive roles — often in the $500,000 range — into mid-level positions closer to $250,000 as they cut costs amid economic uncertainty.

The result is a glut of experienced candidates in the market, competing for fewer roles.

Despite the challenges, Ms Harmer remained an advocate for AI, using it daily in her own job search.

But she argued the most valuable skills — strategy, judgement, and relationship-building — remained distinctly human.

"I'd love to work with an organisation that needs support implementing AI," she said.

"Knowing where it adds value and where we absolutely shouldn't replace people with a bot."