ASX 200 falls, oil price rises as US military strikes hit sentiment, ASX Ltd shares tumble — as it happened

We'll end our markets live coverage here and thank you for staying with us.

Don't forget to catch The Business on ABC News at 8:44pm, after the late news on ABC TV, and any time on ABC iview.

Our team will be back on deck tomorrow morning with the latest.

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More than half a century of coal-fired history has come crashing down in the NSW Hunter Valley.

The Liddell Power Station's iconic 170-metre-tall chimneys were demolished with explosives packed into their base.

The power station was retired in 2023 after 52 years of operation.

Read more from the coverage of my colleagues Amelia Bernasconi and Courtney Yeandle.

The Australian share market ended lower today, dropping 0.4% to 8,657 points.

Over the past five days, the ASX 200 has gained 0.6%, and is virtually unchanged year to date.

Overall, the market had 61 stocks gaining, 11 unchanged and 128 in the red.

When looking at the sectors, Utilities finished at the bottom, down 2.2%, followed by Energy, down 1.1%, and then Consumer Non-Cyclicals, down 0.8%.

Academic & Educational Services and Healthcare were only two sectors gaining, up 2.2% and 0.5%, respectively.

Among companies, the top movers were:

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation, +9.2%
• South32, +4.8%
• Austal, +4.5%
• NRW Holdings, 3.9%
• Graincorp, +3.5%

The bottom movers were:

• ASX, -13.2%
• PEXA Group, -5.9%
• Elders Ltd, -5.4%
• Challenger Ltd, -5.4%
• Iperionx Ltd, -5.2%

US markets will reopen at 11.30pm AEST this evening.

Leaked documents have shown mining giant BHP halted plans to process iron ore at its Jimblebar mine in the Pilbara last May that would have significantly cut carbon emissions.

The project had been in the works since 2022, but the documents suggested it would not be as profitable as the mining giant would like.

Read more on the coverage of my colleagues Angus Grigg, Alex McDonald, Marian Wilkinson and Jade Toomey.

Westpac economists Matthew Hassan, Luci Ellis and Mantas Vanagas have put together a comprehensive analysis of what they think the budget changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing will mean for the housing market.

First up, they note that the negative gearing change is far more significant for most property investors than the replacement of the 50% CGT discount with inflation indexation, which leaves many property investors better off.

"It is the removal of negative gearing that is the more material change for most investors," they argue.

"Treasury estimates that about a third of negatively geared rental properties receive an outright tax subsidy over the life of the asset — i.e. total tax deductions are larger than tax paid."

This is going to be bad news for their employer and other banks, with housing credit growth expected to slow dramatically.

"A 34% fall in new investor activity with the mix skewing more towards newly built dwellings," they write.

"The fall is expected to see growth in the total value of outstanding investor credit slow from around 9.5%yr at the moment to below 7%yr at the end of this year and around 4.0%yr at the end of 2027."

It's also expected to be very bad news for real estate agents, who profit when housing market turnover is higher.

"A 20% decline in total dwelling turnover — led by the slowdown in investor demand, and, on the supply side, few investor properties being sold," the Westpac economists warn.

"The interest rate tightening is also expected to drive a material slowing in owner-occupier activity."

So it's little wonder that some of the nation's biggest real estate agencies have been among the most vocal critics of the proposals.

The news isn't as bad for the construction sector, with the carve out of newly built homes from the changes expected to double the proportion of property investment that goes towards new builds rather than established dwellings.

"The share of newly built dwellings is expected to rise from 20% to around 40%, rising in absolute terms despite the fall in total investor activity," the economists forecast.

As for existing owners and prospective buyers, it's a lose/win respectively, with home prices expected to slow or even fall as the policies interact with a rising interest rate environment.

"Sydney and Melbourne are expected to see outright declines (–3% and –4%) with growth remaining positive but slowing more abruptly in Brisbane (9%), Perth (13%) and Adelaide (7%)," Westpac's economists predict.

"Note that this implies a modest 2% decline nationally over the second half of the year, with prices having risen 2% over the year to date."

The gas price pressure is likely to be modest and gradual given that the vast majority of Australia’s liquefied natural gas exports are sold under long-term contracts to north Asian buyers through to the mid‑2030s, according to Moody’s Ratings.

The federal government has announced a draft domestic gas reservation scheme that requires gas exporters to supply 20 per cent of their total exports to the Australian domestic market annually from July 1, 2027.

The scheme will apply to spot sales and prospective contracts, excluding contracts agreed to before December 2025.

"If the scheme leads to a reduction in exploration and production activities by gas producers — which we consider to be a downside risk and not our central scenario — long-term domestic energy supply and prices would be adversely affected," the financial services firm said.

"Consequently, the scheme is credit positive for Australian gas transmission and distribution companies and gas retailers because it promotes local gas supply."

The Australian Retail Council (ARC) says new Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data confirms what retailers have been warning for weeks, with supply chain disruption, fuel costs and broader operating pressures continuing to weigh heavily on the sector.

Earlier in the blog, we reported that ABS's survey of Business Conditions and Sentiments found that fuel prices and supply availability have negatively impacted 72 per cent of Australian businesses.

Retail was also among the industries most exposed to supply chain disruption, with 31 per cent of businesses reporting impacts, ARC noted.

A further 41 per cent expected revenue to decline over the next month, underscoring the pressure on margins as costs rise and consumer demand remains subdued, it said.

ARC chief economist Glenn Fahey said the official data reinforced the urgent need for practical measures to reduce business costs and improve supply chain resilience.

"Retailers have done everything they can to shield customers, but that becomes harder when freight, fuel and compliance costs keep rising at the same time consumer demand remains fragile," Mr Fahey said

"This is exactly why retailers need practical relief, not more cost and complexity."

ARC added its own recent retailer survey found three in four retailers said supply chain conditions had worsened in April, while two in three reported high or severe concern about the next three months.

More than three in five retailers reported shipping and freight cost increases of more than 10 per cent, while three in four said they were fully or partially absorbing those costs rather than passing them directly on to customers, it said.

At the end of the one-on-one interview with the ABC, Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher said the global macro picture of elevated inflation and interest rates makes government policy settings more important when deciding where to invest.

In response to a question from ABC News about how the macro environment is affecting Santos’ capital allocation, project timing and costs, Mr Gallagher said investment would flow to regions with attractive fiscal and tax settings.

He said governments needed to ask what they could do to encourage companies to invest, pointing to a recent meeting with a senior US official who asked what could be done to attract more Santos capital.

Mr Gallagher said he wanted to hear the same message in Australia, arguing the country’s wealth had been built on export industries and foreign investment from countries including Japan, South Korea and North America.

Australia is set to plant a reduced winter crop this year, as the nation’s grain growers contend with mixed weather conditions and the impacts of significantly higher farm input costs, according to Rabobank's 2026/27 Australian Winter Crop Forecast.

The bank estimates Australia's winter cropping area will come in at 23.1 million hectares for the season — down eight per cent on last year and 4.3 per cent below the five-year average.

The decline in cropping area is forecast to come at the expense of wheat, with the nation’s wheat planting estimated to be down by a substantial 20.4 per cent on last year to 9.8 million hectares, the forecast has found.

This is 24 per cent below the five-year average.

Barley, canola and pulse plantings are forecast to increase on last year’s area, with these commodities offering growers potentially stronger margins than wheat, according to report author, RaboResearch senior grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia.

By state, while planted area is projected to be up (by 5.7 per cent) in WA to reach a record 9.47 million hectares, QLD’s crop is estimated to be 34.8 per cent lower (at 1.06 million hectares) and NSW to be down by 29.2 per cent (to 4.82 million hectares).

Planted area in SA and VIC is forecast to remain relatively stable at 3.99 million hectares (up 0.3 per cent) and 3.74 million hectares (up 0.9 per cent) respectively.

Mr Pistoia said this disparity reflected the dry conditions experienced across QLD and northern NSW this year, alongside better seasonal starts in WA and SA.

AVG Travels has entered liquidation a week after customers reported being dumped by the company just days before their overseas holidays.

Today, liquidators were appointed to Melbourne-based agency AVG Travels, which promoted cut-price flight and tour packages to destinations across the world.

It followed days of growing concern for customers who had reported their tours being cancelled or placed "under review" just days before departure, first reported by the ABC last week.

Our national tourism reporter Kristy Sexton-McGrath has more.

Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher says Australians should not panic about gas supply or prices, arguing East Coast gas prices are currently “amongst the lowest in the world”.

He made the comments in response to a question from ABC News about what he would say to Australians worried about gas bills and whether there will be enough supply into the future.

Mr Gallagher said Santos and other gas producers had taken steps over the past year to make more gas available to the domestic market without undermining existing contracts.

He said that had helped bring East Coast gas prices to levels well below international gas and LNG prices.

Australian gas prices are actually in a very good place right now, and when I look forward to 2030 and even beyond 2030 I don't see any sort of shortage of supply in the marketplace.

So, from that perspective, I think they shouldn't panic.

 I'd like to see a stable policy environment where we can just all rely upon it, and you know, one of the challenges I see with the current draft document is that it's talking about renewing permits or licenses on an annual basis.

These contracts are 10, 15, 20 year contracts, and that's how you attract that capital.

You can't attract that investment capital if they're going to review their investment thesis every 12 months once it comes online.

More on Santos.

CEO Kevin Gallagher has rejected suggestions from some analysts that the federal government’s draft gas reservation framework could force the company into loss-making gas deals.

Under the draft framework released yesterday, LNG exporters would be required to supply the domestic market with gas equivalent to 20 per cent of their export volumes each year, from 2027. Exporters would also need to meet those obligations to maintain export approvals.

The framework says existing contracts between LNG exporters and their customers "entered on or before 22 December 2025" would be respected. However,  Saul Kavonic from MST Marquee, has told the ABC that he believes companies faced high hurdles before they could be considered for a lower domestic supply obligation.

He said they would have to "exhaust all 'viable' avenues" to meet their commitments including for example, paying rival LNG producers to sell them more gas or underwriting new domestic gas projects to increase supply.

Speaking to ABC News after Santos’ Investor Briefing Day, I asked Mr Gallagher how the framework could affect Santos financially if it had to source additional gas from competitors, for example, to meet domestic supply requirements.

He said he did not believe the government would force companies into non-commercial behaviour. 

Well, I think what you’re asking is, would you buy it at a price and sell at a lower price, and I would never be prepared to do that.

I can't believe any government would ask any company anywhere in the world to do something uncommercial, right?

Mr Gallagher said such an outcome would have a financial impact on existing contracts, something he believes the government had said it was not seeking to do.

The federal government is being urged to ban "lead generation" firms that target Australians' superannuation savings, warning these businesses often use "predatory" sales tactics that are putting retirement savings at serious risk.

The call comes in the wake of the collapses of the Shield and First Guardian managed investment schemes where consumers were lured into switching funds initially through clicking on social media ads. 

This opened the door to thousands of Australians losing more than $1 billion of their retirement savings.

The lobby group that represents industry super funds, the Super Members Council, is calling for a ban on all lead generation models.

It says while they are designed to look like helpful 'super health checks' or consumer comparisons, in reality they target people on Facebook and other platforms to harvest people's personal data and pressure them into switching out of APRA-regulated funds into to managed investment schemes that can be more costly and risky.

In a submission to Treasury, the group warns that simply licencing lead generation is not a solution; a better way to go is an outright ban.

"Incremental changes — such as adding a bit more disclosure or tighter licencing rules — simply will not be enough to stop this terrible harm — and would risk just shifting dangerous pressure sales into new forms," Super Member Council CEO Misha Schubert said.

The warning comes after similar calls from consumer group, Super Consumers Australia. Its CEO Xavier O'Halloran says lead generators prey on people who are just looking to do the right thing and get on top of their super.

The consumer group is also calling for a total ban on lead generation, as well as closing a loophole that allows cold calling offering financial advice.

Mr O' Halloran also says there also should be requirements for super trustees to fund compensation to victims when they fail to protect their members from harm.

"Consumers expect trustees to act as gatekeepers — creating incentives for them to do their job will support a safer system," he said.

Mr O'Halloran says there is an option in the Treasury consultation paper that would see people lose access to compensation, and warns against it.

"The proposal to remove the 'but for test' is deeply unfair and undermines a basic tenet that people should be compensated for losses that flow from misconduct," he said.

If you know more about this topic contact Nassim Khadem at khadem.nassim@abc.net.au

Shield and First Guardian raise the question, who pays when super funds collapse? Read more about that here:

As the dust settles on the government’s big federal budget announcement, questions still remain about how and when changes will take place.

But what do some of Australia’s leading economists think of the proposed policies a fortnight later?

And power prices are set to fall for many customers with even bigger drops for businesses.

So what’s driving the relief, and how will this set the stage for tomorrow's latest inflation figures?

In the latest episode, business reporters Daniel Ziffer and Gareth Hutchens break it all down for you.

Switch on here!

Despite the increase in petrol and diesel prices since the Middle East conflict began at the end of February, global electric vehicle (EV) sales fell by about 3% year over year in April, according to Commonwealth Bank.

The fall in global EV sales was largely driven by a 14%/yr and 36%/yr decline in EV sales in China and the US, respectively, it said.

CommBank notes that China has an outsized impact on global EV sales given its share of the EV market (for example, 63% in the 12 months ending April 2026).

However, EV sales outside China lifted about 14%/yr, with Europe being a key standout (+24%/yr).

South Korea also saw EV sales more than double last month (+102%/yr), while Japan and India recorded EV sales growth of 55%/yr and 48%/yr, respectively.

*EVs include both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug‑in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). 

The benchmark ASX 200 index fell below the 8,700 level, down 0.4% to 8,661 points, dragged by the Utilities (-1.7%), Energy (-1.2%), and Technology (-1.1%) sectors.

While looking at individual stocks, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation was at the top, up 8.9%, followed by Austal and Graincorp, up 4.2% and 4.1%, respectively.

ASX was the worst-performing, diving 12%, followed by PEXA Group, down 6.3%, and then 4DMedical, down 5.2%.

An Iranian official says that while "there is no toll" on the Strait of Hormuz, the regime is working to regulate the waterway and that ships wishing to cross will likely be required to make some form of payment.

At a press briefing in Tehran attended by the ABC, the regime issued its first direct response to statements from the US over the weekend, suggesting a deal to end the war was close and would include opening the Strait of Hormuz.

• ASX 200: -0.4% to 8,661 points 
• Australian dollar: flat to 71.70 US cents
• Asia: Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng +0.5%, KOSPI +3.3%
• Europe: FTSE +0.2%
• S&P 500: Closed
• Spot gold: -0.7% to $US4,537/ounce
• Oil: Brent futures +2% to $US98.09/barrel, WTI futures -5% to $U91.78/barrel
• Iron ore: -0.3% to $US108.80/tonne
• Bitcoin: -0.8% to $US76,559

Prices current at around 2:24pm AEST

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Flight Centre has failed to reiterate its prior guidance for FY26 underlying profit before tax (UBPT) to be between $315 million and $350 million in its 113-page investor day presentation today, RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen has pointed out.

"With consensus presently at $317.4 million — which likely includes the now-quantified $5 million of contributions from Pedal Group — we expect market expectations will likely move below $315 million," Mr Chen said.

"Early Q4 results have been heavily impacted by Middle East tensions, which have continued through May," he said. 

"Australian dollar’s strength will also impact Q4 overseas profit translation compared to the prior year.

"May and June are typically stronger leisure trading months and ongoing volatility leading to cancellations, refunds and reduced forward bookings could be expected to have greater impact in those months."

He added that the Pedal Group sale implied that the FY26 contribution of $5 million would be taken below the line, and that the FY25 comparative UBPT would be $286 million, down from the previous $289 million.

Flight Centre's shares were down 3.2%, trading at $9.95 per share, as at 1:28pm AEST.