World loses patience with Trump as war no longer just about Iran

When you need something done, ask a busy man.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is now in the fifth year of a bitter and difficult war with Russia.

But as the global economy reels from the conflict in the Middle East and as world leaders have started to openly speak in contemptuous terms of the president of the United States, Zelenskyy has been the busy man finding workarounds to ameliorate the effects of Donald Trump's chaotic, catastrophic and internally contradictory foreign adventures.

It's not just that Zelenskyy has turned up in the Middle East to offer Gulf states anti-drone weaponry and expertise.

Reuters reported last week that, based on its calculations of market data, at least 40 per cent of Russia's oil export capacity "is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers".

"The shutdown is the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, and has hit Moscow just as oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel due to the Iran war," the news service said.

A strategic move

Zelenskyy obviously has his own reasons for trying to shut down Russia's oil trade. It is one of Russia's main sources of income with which to finance its war with Ukraine.

But the byzantine web of knock-on effects from Trump's pronouncements — let's not call them policies —  in the past five weeks means that Russia is facing a huge boom in its finances thanks to the US decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil in a bid to ease the global market which, of course, is in chaos because of the Iranian response to US and Israeli attacks.

So not only has Zelenskyy had to fight his war with minimal direct military assistance from the US since Trump returned to office last year, he now has to offset the impact of US policies that bolster Russia's capacity to fight.

At the same time, he is offering assistance to the Gulf states that have been facing a relentless barrage of missiles and drones from Iran as a result of the US and Israeli assault.

He's even offering Ukraine's expertise in keeping a functional corridor in the Black Sea as a model for the Strait of Hormuz.

Once again, there is self-interest in his actions: Zelenskyy clearly hopes to tap into the riches of the Gulf states as investors in Ukraine's burgeoning military weapons industry, and potentially as aid donors, or even allies.

The Gulf states have generally tried to keep out of the war in Ukraine, with the Gulf Cooperation Council resisting pressure to back Western sanctions against Russia.

But with Russia a key ally for Iran, the ordinarily complicated balancing act for Gulf states when it comes to superpowers has become even more complicated.

Enter Zelenskyy. Last weekend, he visited the region and signed long-term security agreements — few details have emerged about what is in them — with several Gulf states.

You'd remember that Zelenskyy was one of the first world leaders to face a ritualistic humiliation by Trump in the Oval Office last year. You might also remember he fought back and was subsequently counselled by other world leaders about how to handle the US president.

But on reflection, many of those same world leaders have now given up the pretence of diplomatic niceties.

It's not that they haven't already made clear they disagree with Trump's policies.

It's just that, after the events of the past week, their contempt for the man personally, and for his conduct, is out there for all to see.

'This isn't a show!'

Asked about Trump's latest criticisms of NATO this week and his suggestion that the US would walk away from the treaty, a spokesman for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz dismissively noted that "this isn't the first time he's ⁠done this. And since it's a recurring phenomenon, you can probably judge the consequences for yourself". 

But it is the transformation in the man regarded as the ultimate Trump-whisperer, French President Emmanuel Macron, that is most notable.

In the wake of Trump's comments about NATO — and an offensive reflection on Macron's wife and marriage — Macron told reporters in Seoul on Thursday that the focus should not be on using force to open the Strait of Hormuz but on "work towards de-escalation" in the Middle East and a ceasefire.

"There is too much talk, and it's all over the place," Macron said.

"We all need stability, calm, a return to peace — this isn't a show!" 

Macron said that when we're serious, we don't say "the opposite of what we said the day before". 

"We are talking about war, we are talking today about women and men who are in combat, about women, men and civilians who are being killed," he said. 

"We're also talking about the impact of this war on our economies."

The change is having real-life effects.

A 41-nation virtual meeting chaired by the UK had originally been seen as a way of appeasing Trump and his demands for support in dealing with the question of the Strait of Hormuz.

But it ended up being one which made clear that, while Iran "trying to hold the global economy hostage" was not welcome, there would be no involvement in the strait until there is a ceasefire.

Markets went down after speech

Just as Zelenskyy is finding pragmatic workarounds for keeping his country's hopes alive, world leaders are increasingly just dismissing the US president, his offensive taunts and, more importantly, any notion that there is method in his madness.

Trump's rambling address to the nation on Thursday (Australian time) seems to have finally tipped the views of financial markets that, until now, have been content to day trade on his changing pronouncements, but not fully price in the impact of the economic chaos he has unleashed.

They had been punting on a rapid end to the war.

Instead of rallying after the speech, oil went up and financial markets went down.

The week ended with a feeling of foreboding around the globe that things were going to get a lot worse, and not just because of Trump's language about bombing Iran "back to the Stone Ages".

There was increasing concern that the UAE and Saudi Arabia might become more involved in the war.

And the knock-on effects that could bring Russia further into the conflict continue.

Two weeks ago, Israel reportedly struck Iranian navy infrastructure, including warships, a port, a command centre and a shipyard at the Caspian port of Bandar Anzali, in an effort to stymie a supply line of weapons and ammunition to Iran.

Russia would view the potential widening of the US and Israeli war with Iran into the Caspian Sea "extremely negatively," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

The Caspian Sea. The Baltic. The Red Sea. This war is no longer just about the Strait of Hormuz. Or Iran.

Laura Tingle is the ABC's Global Affairs Editor.