What ABC journalists will be closely watching in 2026

What will you be watching closely in 2026?

That's the question we asked the ABC's foreign correspondents and global affairs journalists.

Our reporters acknowledged the huge shifts in 2025 that have set the political and economic stage for the new year. They noted the monumental shifts in foreign politics with great disruptions to the trade system courtesy of US President Donald Trump's tariffs and a shake-up of security alliances as multiple wars raged on.

Here's what our journalists will be keeping a close eye on in 2026.

Laura Tingle, global affairs editor

The drama of Trump's changing foreign intervention will no doubt continue to dominate the news cycle. But it is the ongoing impact of those interventions, even as the US president moves on to another issue, that can be overlooked.

One of the biggest questions for 2026 will be how Europe responds to the challenge of what is effectively the end of the NATO alliance, with Trump not just withdrawing the US from equations about Western defence, but also expressing direct hostility to Western Europe and its democracies.

The cumbersome nature of the multilateral bodies in Europe has made its response to a growing defence threat from Russia both slow and disjointed, as has the rise of right-wing populist political movements in many European countries, which Trump has openly said he will now back.

The crucial role that Europe now plays in supporting Ukraine will do much to determine whether the economic capacity of Ukraine or Russia snaps first.

In our own region, the emergence of a more assertive approach to China by Japan under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi also creates an entirely new dynamic in an already tense South China Sea.

Matthew Doran, Middle East correspondent in Jerusalem

2026 for me is the story of the last two years: Gaza.

While a ceasefire may technically be in force in the strip, local health authorities have reported hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in the period since.

And that's before the world manages to find solutions to some of the most prickly issues standing in the way of a lasting period of peace in the strip — including convincing Israel and Hamas not to stray from any deal.

The scars of this war are unimaginably deep in Gaza and amongst the broader Palestinian community.

In the West Bank, communities feel like they are battling for their very existence against emboldened illegal Israeli settlers and security crackdowns by Israeli forces — justified on the grounds of national security.

The last few years have also forever changed Israel: how the country sees itself in the global community, and how it reckons with its actions at home.

2026 will also be the year Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces the first electoral test since Hamas's deadly attacks on his country, with voters due to head to the polls at some point before October.

Eric Tlozek, Middle East correspondent in Istanbul

The wars in the Middle East haven't stopped; the intensity of some has just gone down.

In Lebanon, Israel continues to bomb and maintain military outposts despite a supposed ceasefire, and the militant group Hezbollah is resisting demands to disarm.

In Syria, Israel has illegally seized more Syrian territory and occasionally attacks the forces of the new transitional government, which remains unable to resolve conflicts with ethnic militias.

The war with Iran is not really over either, just paused while the US tries to secure a new nuclear control agreement and Israel contemplates the weakness of the theocratic regime.

The situation is highly unstable, with the big players involved in multiple, complex conflicts. The most glaring is the civil war in Sudan, a travesty where international intervention to force a ceasefire is long overdue. All the conflicts ultimately require political rather than military solutions, something nobody has so far been willing to accept.

Among the things shattered over the last two years were decades of assumptions, "red lines" and understandings about how the region works. What to watch now is how these huge shifts play out.

Bang Xiao, journalist in ABC's Asia Pacific newsroom

If there's one thing to be clear about heading into 2026, it's that Xi Jinping's power is far more settled — and locked in — than many outside China still assume. The March parliamentary meetings will matter less for surprises than for signals: leadership choices, institutional fine-tuning, and whether Xi is quietly shaping succession thinking beyond his third term.

Stability at the top doesn't mean policy rigidity, but it does further concentrate decision-making. That matters for Taiwan. Xi is likely to meet Taiwan's opposition leader Cheng Li-wun, a long-time supporter of reunification rooted in her party's nationalist tradition. On the surface, it looks like outreach. Politically, it may just as easily sharpen divisions on the island. Whether this engagement cools tensions or hardens views will be tested in Taiwan's midterm elections in late November — often a reliable guide to the next presidential race.

Economic pressure is also flowing outward. China's slowdown, overcapacity and weak consumer demand are pushing firms to compete more aggressively offshore, particularly in EVs, clean tech and advanced manufacturing — including in Australia's remit.

Running through all of this is constraint. Youth unemployment, thin social safety nets and local government debt don't threaten the system, but they narrow Beijing's room to manoeuvre, making China in 2026 more visible externally and less flexible internally.

Allyson Horn, China correspondent

As the first ABC correspondent to be based in Beijing in five years, I've arrived at a crucial point in time, where China is extending its reach — economically, militarily and technologically — and cementing itself as a global superpower.

But things are never black and white in China, and for all its successes, Beijing is facing some major issues that will continue to deepen in 2026.

The trade war with the US, prompted by Trump's tariffs, will likely come to a head this year either as an explosion or complete fizzle. Trump is expected to meet with Xi early in the year and seems to be signalling a longer-term tariff truce could be achieved.

Places like Australia will also be keenly watching as China continues to expand its military reach across the Indo-Pacific to test its physical capabilities, and how nations, including Australia, respond to such Chinese threats and encroachments. It's especially important as Beijing becomes even closer friends with Russia and North Korea.

In recent years, China has also been ramping up its military activity in and around Taiwan. China views Taiwan as its own territory and has long-held ambitions to "reunify" the area, against the views of many Taiwanese people who consider their self-ruled island to be a separate nation. Is 2026 the year China could go to war over the issue? I think it's unlikely — but if China felt like its hand was being forced in some way, that could spark military action.

In 2026, China will also begin implementing its next "five-year plan" — a blueprint that includes tackling a sluggish economy, a rapidly declining birthrate and persistent high unemployment rates for young Chinese.

But China will also be pushing ahead on its major advancements, including its EV dominance, AI ambitions, and world-leading green power credentials.

Brad Ryan, journalist for the ABC's North America bureau in Washington DC

The US can feel like a country that's losing its grip on reality. Conspiracy theories are thriving, science funding is being cut, the president calls climate change a "con job" and his top health official doles out medical advice that horrifies doctors.

Meanwhile, media is getting more fragmented, online platforms have abandoned fact-checking, and algorithms keep taking control of what people see.

As America heads towards November's midterm elections, the forces that can pollute public discourse with disinformation are just getting stronger.

But there's also a big new one: generative AI, which powers bots like ChatGPT and produces lifelike images from short written prompts.

The US got a taste of its deceptive potential in 2024, when it was used to mimic Joe Biden's voice in fake phone calls to voters.

But that's nothing compared to what's possible now. AI still spits out lots of slop, but some of its creations are scarily convincing.

Meanwhile, chatbots are becoming more persuasive than humans in political debates.

There have been bad-faith efforts to interfere in past US elections. But now the tools are more powerful. We're yet to see how they could be deployed at scale with malicious intent. Will we in 2026?

James Oaten, North Asia correspondent in Tokyo

Japan's newish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is a renowned China hawk. Like her mentor Shinzo Abe, she watches Beijing's military build-up in the South and East China Sea with great suspicion, perhaps nervousness.

Within weeks of taking the top job, she ignited a feud with China after stating a conflict over Taiwan could be considered a threat and incite a military response.

What Takaichi said isn't necessarily wrong. It's just that politicians often use more sensitive, ambiguous language.

With the cat out of the bag, China is applying the pressure.

First, Beijing warned its citizens to avoid travelling to Japan, seafood imports were suspended, and Japanese pop culture events were cancelled. More recently it's sent a military message.

Chinese drones allegedly entered Japanese territory near Taiwan, while most recently Chinese military jets allegedly locked radar on Japanese aircraft.

The relationship between the two Asian powers is in a downward spiral. The length and severity of this will likely continue to play out in 2026.

China's coercion will give the prime minister more clout to accelerate her big military spend, reaching 2 per cent of GDP next year — two years ahead of schedule.

The question is how it will be done. Raising income taxes, as has been flagged, may test voter resolve.

Kathryn Diss, Europe correspondent in London

We report on Ukraine most days, but we don't often talk about whether its stoic, unrelenting president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, will survive in office.

For almost four years now he's been on our smartphones, tablets, TVs and podcasts almost every single day. But now more than ever, his leadership is being tested, at home and abroad, which is why I'll be keeping a close eye on Zelenskyy in 2026.

Aside from the diplomatic troubles he's having securing a peace deal with an uncompromising Russia, he's also facing headwinds at home and that, in a crisis, is never a good thing.

He's had to sack key members in his government, charge prominent public figures, even a former close associate from his previous life as a comedian who's fled the country over an energy scandal involving the siphoning of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Despite the war, corruption is still rife and this impropriety has made its way right up to Zelenskyy's longtime chief of staff, Andrii Yermack, who was sacked as a result.

So, what will happen to Ukraine's formidable warrior this year? Can he survive the rot in his government and demands from Trump to hold an election during wartime? Whatever happens, it'll be critical to Ukraine's future.

Riley Stuart, producer in ABC's Europe bureau

While there's an argument to be made that Russia has the upper hand when it comes to its invasion of Ukraine, it's losing a massive battle at home. That's why I'm going to be watching the country's economy closely in 2026.

It's going to be interesting for a few reasons. Some analysts argue it's likely in recession already. Year-over-year inflation was up around 8 per cent last month. Russia's central bank had the cash rate at 16.5 per cent in October.

Income from oil and gas exports — Moscow's main source of revenue — is plummeting, while foreign investment has also stalled. It's an economic doom spiral that means life is going to get a lot tougher for people living under Vladimir Putin's autocracy.

If this trajectory continues, could more Russians start questioning their president's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine? It's been a drain on the country's finances, not to mention its stocks of young men. Could some public pressure, seldom seen over the past quarter of a century, start to be applied to the man at the head of Russia's power vertical? Let's wait and see.

Max Walden, journalist with the ABC's Asia Pacific newsroom

Bangladesh will elect a new government.

One of the world's largest elections will take place in February, perhaps providing an early sign of how democracy will fare in 2026.

There are almost 128 million people registered to vote in an election sparked by the collapse in 2025 of the previous government led by prime minister Sheikh Hasina.

Dubbed "the world's first gen Z revolution", protests over inflation, a lack of high-quality jobs and widespread corruption culminated in Hasina fleeing into exile in India and her party, the Awami League, being barred from participating in the 2026 polls.

Bangladesh's electoral commission has said it will allow millions of citizens working abroad to cast their ballots overseas for the first time, which will pose a major logistical challenge for officials.

The International Crisis Group warns that if Bangladesh's new government, likely to be led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, fails to implement reforms demanded by the protest movement, there could be violence on the streets once again.

Kamin Gock, North America correspondent in Washington DC

Trump isn't on the ballot this year, but his Republican party is. The midterm elections will be a referendum on his administration and will shape the remainder of his presidency.

Right now, Republicans hold a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate. But holding on to that majority is a historically difficult task and the outcome has the potential to scupper Trump's plans.

He knows this all too well from his first term in office. So, he's been pressuring states to change electoral maps to favour Republicans, hoping it will give him more seats.

It is also an opportunity for the Democrats, who have often seemed rudderless and in disarray, to reclaim authority over issues in Congress.

Trump is already shifting gears back into campaign mode. But will he be as effective now he is in office?

It's much easier to blame the country's problems on the government when you aren't the one in power.

Trump promised an "America first" agenda but support within his MAGA coalition has been fraying. Some have criticised him for focusing too much energy abroad when there are issues at home.

On a near-daily basis, he blames his predecessor Joe Biden for the problems at hand, but he can't pass the buck forever.

Polling suggests a growing number of people are worried about their finances and the economy.

Affordability is top of mind for most Americans. The party that wins the hip pocket debate should come out on top.

Rachel Clayton, North America correspondent in Washington DC

The US midterm elections are solidly on my radar. It's the first real test of how durable the political shifts of Trump's second term actually are.

Midterms always act as a national temperature check, but I think this cycle is likely to be more of a stress test for the Republicans and whether Trump will lose the tight control he has held over the party so far (although this is already beginning to shift).

I'll be particularly focused on whether Democrats can mobilise a fatigued base that's been grappling with shifting policies on issues like climate change, energy and immigration.

The other moment I'll be watching is the appointment of the next Federal Reserve chair. It's very likely to be one of the two Kevins: Hassett or Warsh. Both have indicated they will cut rates in line with Trump's agenda, despite current chair Jay Powell indicating just one cut should be on the cards this year.

The Fed has managed to remain independent despite repeated GOP attempts at booting members and Trump's ongoing rhetoric around wanting the lowest rates in the world. The next choice of chair could change that.

Erwin Renaldi, journalist in the ABC's Asia Pacific newsroom

I'd like to closely watch Australia's relationship with neighbouring countries in South-East Asia, particularly Indonesia, at a critical moment for regional engagement. Since October 2025, at least four parliamentary public hearings have been held as part of an "inquiry into Building Asia Capability in Australia through the Education System and Beyond". 

The inquiry will report in early 2026, but submissions and testimonies presented have raised concerns about Australia's declining capacity to understand its closest neighbours. This raises a key question: Does Indonesian, and other Asian language and literacy, need urgent reform and how?

Our interviews with Indonesian language teachers across schools and universities revealed a consistent trend: Enrolments in Indonesian language studies continue to fall. Six years ago we looked into misconceptions about Indonesia among Australians, and this mirrors what experts have warned that this decline extends beyond education, describing it as a growing "strategic vulnerability".

A shrinking pool of Indonesian language and cultural specialists risks weakening Australia's diplomacy, economic partnerships, and people-to-people links. It also increases the risk of misreading political developments and cultural nuances at a time when Indonesia is predicted to be one of the major geopolitical and economic powers in the region.

Emily Clark, journalist on the foreign desk

There was a moment in late 2025 when the murky saga of Jeffrey Epstein had some clarity. The so-called Epstein files would be released and the ghost that had been tormenting a prince and a few presidents would be exorcised.

Instead, the haunting is very much likely to continue.

Some of the Epstein files held by the US Department of Justice are out in the world, but the release has been slammed by survivors as "institutional betrayal" and by commentators as a political act. The face of Bill Clinton was sprinkled throughout pages in the initial drop. References to Donald Trump appear in the second batch.

It now seems as though it will take some time for all the Epstein files to be uploaded. For that reason, 2026 will likely see this story enter a new chapter. This is no longer a question of whether Trump will release the files or not. That pass-fail, black-white proposition has moved into a new grey area.

But the insatiable appetite for this story tells us that every page released will be devoured, regurgitated, and consumed again until the American public is stuffed full of whatever they can get about Epstein and the secrets he kept.

He has already claimed a prince, but in 2026 Epstein may topple more giants from the grave.

Emilie Gramenz, producer in the ABC's North America bureau in Washington DC

The latest United States National Security Strategy accuses previous administrations of "years of neglect" of the western hemisphere — what most people think of as North, South and Central America.

The strategy makes it clear that the Trump administration is homed in on its immediate region.

It talks about enlisting "friends in the hemisphere" to control migration.

The White House shows no sign of softening its immigration tactics, including mass deportations, in 2026.

It also wants other nations to cooperate with the US on action against narco-terrorists and cartels.

Trump recently told our correspondent that launching strikes into Mexico to stop drugs would be "OK with me".

The most pressing question is where the US's months-long pressure campaign on Venezuela leads. 

Trump continues to threaten an escalation: moving from lethal strikes on alleged drug-smuggling boats in the Caribbean to some kind of strike on Venezuelan land.

Many are wondering if the real agenda is the ouster of Venezuela's autocratic president, Nicolás Maduro.

We will all be watching to see what the next move is.