Coalition candidates tapping into community concern about crime ahead of federal election

As polling day draws closer, federal Coalition candidates have been campaigning on crime and believe it could swing votes in some seats.

Candidates have seized on the issue, with one suggesting people in his electorate don't feel safe taking public transport and going to the shops.

Peter Dutton, the police officer turned politician, has promised that a Coalition government would "take crime seriously" and "reduce the problem" in suburbs across the country.

"Community safety demands serious leadership — and only the Coalition has the strength and the plan to deliver it," the opposition leader has declared.

While predominantly a state issue, crime is a potentially potent one that the Coalition is keen to capitalise on in communities increasingly concerned about public safety.

Crime has been front of mind for business owner Dave Wilkinson since a group of people broke into his shop and attacked him with a golf club.

Mr Wilkinson had been fast asleep in his house, out the back of his general store and post office in Willawarrin, on the mid-north coast of New South Wales.

He woke to commotion about 4:30am. CCTV footage suggests the intruders were in the shop, stealing cash and cigarettes for about seven minutes.

Mr Wilkinson tried to confront them but was struck repeatedly with the golf club.

A broken flat screen TV was within his reach, so he used it as a shield.

"The TV screen was taking 90 per cent of the blows," Mr Wilkinson told the ABC.

"I did get hit on the arm and they must have got one around my kidney areas. That sort of hurt a couple of days later.

"Then I think they just got tired. They ran outside real quick, like cockroaches."

Voters anxious about crime

In seats from the Top End to Tasmania, voters have raised community safety as a top concern in conversations with reporters and politicians and in public opinion polling ahead of the election.

A recent Roy Morgan survey of about 14,000 voters shows public anxiety about crime has risen significantly since the last federal election in 2022.

Asked to choose "which three issues are the most important to you?", almost a quarter of respondents selected "reducing crime and maintaining law and order".

It sits below cost of living — ahead by a country mile — and improving health and hospital services as the third-most chosen issue.

Cost of living consistently comes out on top in polling around the issues of concern among Australian voters. This is reflected in the ABC's Vote Compass, Roy Morgan's federal election survey, IPSOS Issues Monitor, JWS Research True Issues and AFR/Freshwater Strategy Polling.

Roy Morgan's data suggests there's been an increase in concern around crime across supporters of all major parties and in all states and territories.

Geographically, the biggest increases were in Queensland and Victoria, where around a third of respondents in both capital cities and regional areas listed it as a top issue in 2024.

Other polls also showed a slight increase in concern around crime compared to previous years.

The IPSOS Issues Monitor showed the proportion of respondents who listed "crime" as a top concern went from from 13 per cent in 2022 to 26 per cent in March 2025, while AFR/Freshwater's survey saw the proportion who nominated "crime and social order" rise from 15 per cent in December 2022 to 23 per cent in April 2025.

If people are more concerned about it, is crime actually rising?

It's complicated. Broadly speaking, the data doesn't suggest a widespread rise in crime rates — that is, the total number of offences, offenders or criminal incidents per 100,000 people.

But there are pockets of the country that have seen increases in some types of crime recently.

Political campaigns focused on being "tough on crime" tend to be framed around property crimes, such as break-ins, burglaries and vehicle thefts, while policy to address rising domestic violence rates is often separate.

Don Weatherburn, a former director of the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOSCAR), says trying to get a national snapshot of crime statistics is very difficult because methods for recording offences differ across states and territories.

"I could go on about how bad the national crime statistics are. It's appalling. It's a mess. It's an absolute shambles," he said.

"The data is old, there is insufficient regional breakdown, and there are not enough offences included."

Based on his analysis of the national data available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Professor Weatherburn said most states and territories were experiencing a decrease in property crime and increases in violent crime, with some exceptions.

"Queensland, for example, has seen an increase in the period between 2019 — 2023 in robbery, break and enter, motor vehicle theft and other theft," he said.

"And the Northern Territory has also had problems: it's seen increases in robbery, break and enter, motor vehicle theft and other theft.

"The other states, in terms of property crime, are generally doing pretty well — big decreases in most cases."

In the same period, rates of assault and sexual assault offences have increased in most states and territories, but Professor Weatherburn said the data on these types of crime was more difficult to evaluate.

That's partly because the rate of offences being recorded by police didn't align with victimisation rates recorded in the ABS's annual Crime Victimisation Survey.

Professor Weatherburn suggested increased reporting of domestic violence and sexual assault offences in recent years, including historical cases uncovered during the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse, go some way to explaining this discrepancy.

While statistics didn't point to a significant rise in crime across the board, Professor Weatherburn said perceptions of crime could be amplified by media reporting and sharing of experiences on social media.

"What happens is that in one location there will be an increase in crime, the media will latch onto that and report it, that will arouse concern — not only in the area where there was an increase in crime, but in surrounding areas," he said.

On Instagram, posts from high-profile journalists and influencers put crime well and truly front of mind for many, while Facebook groups are often used as a means of alerting others to crimes that have occurred in local communities.

Will crime swing votes at the federal election?

While nationally collated statistics suggest that crime has not spiked, there are voters whose lives have been impacted by shocking personal experiences.

In those communities, some voters have told the ABC they may back the candidate promising a tougher stance on law and order.

In the Local Government Area (LGA) of Kempsey, where Mr Wilkinson was attacked, there has been an increase in the rate of some criminal incidents, including stealing from retail stores.

Mr Wilkinson said while he has voted for the Nationals in previous elections, he is waiting to see which party has the toughest stance on law and order this time around.

"I do believe One Nation's always tougher on crime and that sort of thing. They'll probably end up getting my vote," he told the ABC.

The Coalition has also tapped into anxiety over the so-called "post and boast" phenomenon, where offenders steal cars and post video of joy rides on social media. Such accounts also publish vision of intruders breaking into homes while the occupants are sleeping.

Mr Wilkinson's local member is Nationals MP Pat Conaghan, a former police officer and prosecutor. He has reported several of these accounts to the independent regulator for online safety and asked for them to be shut down. As yet, he says, no action has been taken.

Mr Conaghan, who holds the seat of Cowper on a 2.4 per cent margin, has endured tight contests in the past two federal elections, but has never observed so much concern about crime.

"I said recently in parliament that the crime issue in my electorate is as prevalent, if not more prevalent, than the cost of living issue," he told the ABC.

Further north in Alice Springs — which falls into another marginal seat, the Labor-held electorate of Lingiari — many locals are similarly on edge.

Crime statistics from the Northern Territory are difficult to compare and analyse after a change in reporting in late 2023 prompted concern from the police union that some figures could be inaccurate.

Last year a string of violent incidents prompted an urgent meeting of territory government leaders to discuss "escalating violence" in the town. NT's chief minister and police commissioner flagged the possibility of asking for federal support to address the problem.

But the place where crime could significantly swing votes is Victoria, according to political consultant, Andrew Carswell.

"Victoria is where the issue is on crime and the Coalition are a chance of nabbing one or two seats because of it, and definitely reducing Labor's margins," he said.

Mr Carswell, who once advised former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, said internal and external polling showed crime had become the "number two issue" in the outer suburban seats of Dunkley, Gorton, McEwen and, to a lesser extent, Hawke.

And it had "definitely" become the second most pressing issue for voters in the regional seat of Bendigo, which is held by Labor's Lisa Chesters on safe margin of 11 per cent.

Victorian crime data shows the rate of criminal incidents involving stealing from cars and retail stores has risen in Bendigo, as have some categories of assault.

Bendigo coffee shop owner Alex Davis has noticed customers expressing more frustration around local crime in recent months, with some hinting at vigilantism.

"People [have] sounded like they weren't far off taking things into their own hands," he said.

"Nothing actually happened, but just the vigilante mindset started to set in. Cops can only do so much, and people are just getting sick of being robbed, so what else do you do?"

He speculated whether there could be a connection to the cost-of-living crisis.

Professor Weatherburn said there was an association between cost of living and increases in crime in some communities.

"When economies contract you tend to get increases in property crime … particularly for crimes such as shop stealing, where the opportunities are plentiful and the risks fairly modest," he said.

Another Bendigo local who spoke with the ABC, Nick Petersen, recounted how friends recently had their car stolen and home broken into. He believed the issue would "absolutely" affect how community members vote at the federal election.

"For me personally it will come down to who I think is actually going to do something about it," he said.

State issue playing out in federal campaign

With the exception of federal offences like, terrorism, international drug trafficking, tax evasion and fraud, crime is largely regulated at the state and territory level — for example in Queensland, where "adult crime, adult time" legislation has just been expanded, and in Victoria, where tough new bail laws have been introduced targeting youth offenders.

There is little that federal politicians can do to manage policing or punishment. But the Commonwealth can tinker around the edges.

While on the campaign trail in Victoria, Peter Dutton announced $750 million for a crime package dubbed 'Operation Safer Communities', which included funding for a federal police-led taskforce to tackle trafficking and organised crime.

"[It] is a game changer in relation to how we can help keep our communities, our homes, our towns and our suburbs safe," he said.

In tapping into concerns about crime, the federal Coalition has been borrowing from playbooks that have proven successful for conservative governments in recent state and territory elections.

Before the election, Bendigo made national headlines after CCTV vision was released of two separate incidents where youths attacked a civilian and a security guard.

A day later, the local Liberal and Nationals candidates promised $360,000 to upgrade 57 CCTV cameras across the regional city, on the back of Mr Dutton's pledge to revive the Coalition's controversial Safer Communities Fund.

The grant scheme funded safety programs through local councils and community groups, but a National Audit Office report found grants overseen by Mr Dutton in 2019 were distributed in a way that favoured Coalition seats.

According to one Nationals MP, the announcement about CCTV cameras in Bendigo "went off". Another told the ABC "crime is red hot in Bendigo".

The Nationals have been targeting the safe Labor seat since 60 per cent of the electorate voted against a Voice to Parliament.

Their candidate is a strongly built publican named Andrew Lethlean, who is well recognised around town. While making an election promise to upgrade a local sporting facility, Mr Lethlean told reporters the investment would "help keep kids off the street".

While on the campaign trail in the NSW seat of Cowper, Nationals leader David Littleproud told journalists:

"I get that all the criminologists and everybody is telling us about civil rights, but we've hit a tipping point, where the civil rights of the individual need to be put aside for the civil rights of the community.

"And unfortunately, at the moment, there's not. They go away to detention and come back better criminals."

He urged all states and territories to follow Queensland's lead when it comes to youth crime, arguing that children as young as 10 should be sent to "outback camps" which "rebuild them" and "give them a purpose in life and a worth".

The LNP romped home to victory in Queensland's state election last October, with the party's "Making Queensland Safer" laws a key part of the campaign. The policy cut through despite criminologists arguing youth crime rates had plummeted.

That result came just months after the NT's Country Liberal Party, led by Lia Finocchiarro, campaigned on a promise to stamp out crime, claiming a decisive victory over Labor in August.

Mr Dutton has signalled a Coalition government would work with the NT government to address crime in Alice Springs — at the heart of an electorate that, it's worth noting, is being fought on a knife's edge and is anyone's to win.

For Labor's part, prime minister Anthony Albanese has largely steered clear of campaigning on crime, commenting that it was primarily a state issue but that his government "provides whatever support is required when it is requested".

But in communities where many residents have a story about crime — or know someone who does — promises to keep people safe may cut through with voters.

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