What young people think about the US election 'circus' and how a Trump victory could affect Australia

Sixteen-year-old Quinn Mitchell — a self-confessed "political enthusiast" from New Hampshire in the United States — is worried about his country's future.

"It's definitely a very polarising and troubling time in America," he says, in an interview with BTN High.

"Former President Trump was almost assassinated in Pennsylvania by a gunman … others in the crowd, too, were critically injured and one other died.

"It's definitely scary, and it's definitely an interesting time to be a Gen-Zer."

Although still a teen, Quinn is no politics newbie.

He's attended more than 100 presidential events, according to his Twitter bio, and has also made headlines for putting tough questions to those in power.

When asked how he feels about the political climate in North America following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and Joe Biden's decision to pull out of the presidential race and back Vice President Kamala Harris, what immediately comes to mind for Quinn is how engaged his friends have become in recent weeks.

"I think a majority Americans feel worried because assassination attempts like that … it hasn't happened in a long time."

Chinu James, an 18-year-old student from the US state of Maryland, says as someone whose family emigrated to North America from countries in the Caribbean, she has also been watching the presidential race closely.

"I think with everything going on recently … it's definitely made the divide between Republicans and Democrats more apparent," she says.

On the other side of the world, young Australians like 19-year-old Abou have also been following US politics.

"Mostly because … it is entertaining to watch. A lot of the drama that goes on … it spreads like wildfire across the internet," he says.

But Emma Shortis, a senior researcher in international and security affairs at The Australia Institute, says Australians need to take US politics seriously.

If Trump is returned to power in November's presidential election, for better or worse, the US is in for a big shake-up — one that could be felt for generations, both in America and here in Australia.

The US-Australia relationship

To understand why the US election result has the potential to impact Australia, it's useful to look back at how the bond between the two countries has developed.

Australia and the US fought side by side in World War II, and when our government believed Australia might be invaded, the US answered the call and sent troops to help.

But Dr Shortis says the relationship really became official when Australia signed the Australia, New Zealand and United States (ANZUS) Security Treaty in 1951.

"Which lots of people actually think means we have a security guarantee from the US, like they'll come and rescue us if anything happens, but it's not that at all — it's just a commitment … to act and support each other," Dr Shortis says.

Since then, Australia has joined the US in major wars, has created Pine Gap — a joint spy base with the US in the Northern Territory, and signed up for the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal.

"So, America is probably the most important country to Australia when it comes to our foreign policy," Dr Shortis says.

How US politics affects Australia

The US is also seen as the most important economy in the world, and one of Australia's key free trade and investment partners.

"The strength of the American economy and the stability of the American economy is really important to Australia and to our economy as well," Dr Shortis says.

Our countries also share similar cultures and values, and American influences are all around us, so decisions made in the US can end up having an impact here too.

Dr Shortis says this is particularly true when it comes to who is in charge and what their policies are.

"And given Australia's submarine deal … that means that we potentially can be pulled into that [possible] conflict.

"But there's also a bunch of other stuff that would have big implications for Australia — climate action being one of the biggest ones."

She says Trump and his team "have really detailed plans to undo even the … inadequate climate action that the Biden administration has been able to achieve".

There could also be cultural implications for Australia, "because so much of Trump's agenda is around [the] social and cultural … and you can see in Australia that the same kind of politics … are being encouraged", Dr Shortis says.

Young Aussies' views on the US

The US has had its fair share of political and cultural changes over the past few years, including the overturning of Roe v Wade, which abolished women's constitutional right to an abortion.

And that's changing how some young Americans — and Australians — view the US.

Dr Shortis says these days, young Australians don't necessarily value our relationship with US in the same way previous generations have done.

"I don't think that lines up with how young Australians, in particular, see both the US and Australia's role in the world. 

"I think a lot of young people would hope … that Australia stands up for our values."

'We need to keep … Australia safe'

On the streets of Adelaide, many teens agree.

Jennifer, 14, says the US is "definitely … a different political world to what we have here", and Australia and the US "don't rely on each other the same way as we used to".

Abou, 19, agrees, adding the US "is not … as idolised as it used to be".

"That picture of America being this big country … where dreams are made … with a lot of the conflict going on in the world right now, I feel like that perception is dying out," he says.

Abou believes that Australians have more political options.

"We have a choice of people to lead us, compared to America, where it's only ever really two parties that are incredibly opposed," he says.

But he worries that a Trump victory could have flow-on effects for Australia.

"Trump's supporters, the more right-leaning traditional people … they'll become a louder majority … and I guess you might see that get pushed into our politics as well," Abou says.

Masangay, 12, is also keen for Australia to stay true to its values, regardless of the US election result.

"America, they have guns and stuff, and Australia doesn't have guns," she says.

Room for hope

Dr Shortis says while US politics have the potential to impact Australia in a big way, we often underestimate our own power.

"We matter to the US as well, we have such a close relationship, and we could actually use that relationship for really good things," she says.

"We could encourage the best of the US, really lean into those cultural connections and our democratic connections and … focus on that part of the relationship, instead of the war fighting.

"So, I think there is room for hope, and also for Australia to actually use our influence."

Back in the US, teen political enthusiast Quinn Mitchell has a message for young people in the US and Australia.

"Make the effort to be involved … reach out to people," he says.